The third and final game of this NL Central series gets underway today with the Milwaukee Brewers hosting the Chicago Cubs at American Family Field. MLB odds have Milwaukee as a sizable -172 favorite, while the total sits at eight.
My Cubs vs. Brewers prediction is bullish on the favorite, primarily due to the pitching matchup.
Read on for my MLB picks for Sunday, June 30.
Cubs vs Brewers prediction
My best bet
Brewers -1.5 (+125 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Right-hander Freddy Peralta takes the mound for the Milwaukee Brewers, and he should be a good candidate to back. Peralta is 5-4 this season with a 4.03 ERA and 1.17 WHIP.
Those are not the greatest numbers in the world, but his underlying metrics suggest that positive regression is looming. The right-hander boasts a 3.67 xERA and ranks in the 70th percentile or higher in xBA, average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate.
We’ve already started to see this expected positive regression come to fruition as Peralta has allowed two or fewer runs in each of his past two starts. The 28-year-old is 1-0 over that stretch with a commanding 1.64 ERA and 1.00 WHIP.
Milwaukee won each of those games by at least a two-run margin.
This success is likely to continue against the Chicago Cubs, a team Peralta is 5-2 against through 17 career meetings with a 3.34 ERA and 1.17 WHIP. Meanwhile, Chicago hands the ball to right-hander Kyle Hendricks, who has struggled mightily this season.
Hendricks is 1-5 with a fade-worthy 6.87 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. His underlying metrics are equally poor as he ranks in the 18th percentile in xERA and seventh percentile in xBA.
These woes are likely to continue against Milwaukee, a team Hendricks is 0-2 against over the past 10 meetings with a troubling 6.04 ERA and 1.49 WHIP.
Cubs vs Brewers same-game parlay (SGP)
Brewers moneyline
Over 8
Christian Yelich Over 0.5 hits
Not only does Milwaukee possess the pitching advantage, but it possesses the hitting edge as well. The Brewers rank in the Top 10 of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, OPS, and stolen bases.
They pace the Cubs in each of those categories. I think Milwaukee is capable of putting up at least six runs by themselves in this matchup, and I trust Chicago enough to add a couple of its own.
If we are backing both a high-scoring game as well as a Brewers victory, then a highly-correlated outcome would be for Christian Yelich to record a hit in the process.
Yelich boasts a .240 xBA and .406 xSLG through 63 career plate appearances against Hendricks and has recorded at least one hit in 14 of his past 17 games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Cubs vs Brewers odds
Cubs vs Brewers live odds
Cubs vs Brewers opening odds
- Run line: Chicago +1.5 (-152) | Milwaukee -1.5 (+126)
- Moneyline: Chicago +140 | Milwaukee -166
- Over/Under: Over 8 (-110) | Under 8 (-110)
Cubs vs Brewers spread and Over/Under analysis
- Milwaukee opened as a -166 favorite and have since been bet up to -172.
- I think this line continues to move closer to the two-dollar range as we approach first pitch, due to all the aforementioned variables.
- The total opened at 8 and remains at that price.
- I would be surprised if the total moves from this number, given that Peralta should keep Chicago’s offense at bay while Hendricks could get lit up by the Brewers once again.
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Cubs vs Brewers trend
Six of Milwaukee’s past seven wins have come by at least a two-run margin. Find more MLB betting trends for Cubs vs. Brewers
Cubs vs Brewers game info
| Location: | American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI |
| Date: | Sunday, 6-30-2024 |
| First pitch: | 2:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Marquee, Bally Sports Wisconsin |
| Cubs starting pitcher: | Kyle Hendricks (1-5, 6.87 ERA) |
| Brewers starting pitcher: | Freddy Peralta (5-4, 4.03 ERA) |
Cubs vs Brewers latest injuries
Cubs vs Brewers weather
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