Top prospect James Wood is expected to make his debut for the Washington Nationals on July 1 when they host the New York Mets in the opener of a three-game series.
N.Y. had a great June, and my Mets vs. Nationals predictions expect that success to carry on in the first day of July against a Washington side that has lost five of its last six. Find out why in the MLB picks below.
Mets vs Nationals prediction
My best bet
Mets moneyline (-108 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Last month's key improvement for the New York Mets was on the offensive end. They hit .283 with a .865 OPS during June, slugging 41 home runs in 24 games while averaging 6.38 runs per night.
New York has hit well against LHP all year long, posting a .780 OPS vs. .724 against righties. That number bodes well against MacKenzie Gore, who went 2-3 with a 5.13 ERA in June.
While Gore’s strong strikeout rate (10.5 per nine innings) gives him some nice-looking peripherals, the Mets are one of the lowest strikeout teams in the majors, which will go some way towards nullifying Gore’s biggest strength.
New York will counter with its own lefty in David Peterson, who was called up in late May after posting excellent numbers in the minors to start the year. Peterson is 4-0 with a 3.67 ERA since his promotion, and the Mets have won four of his five starts.
A deeper look at Peterson’s numbers makes him look more like the same pitcher with borderline MLB ability he’s been throughout his career, as he's walking 4.3 batters per nine innings and pitching to a 5.01 FIP on the year.
But Washington has struggled against left-handed pitching this year (.635 OPS). Peterson is also due for some improvement in his strikeout numbers, which are well below his career average of 9.6 per nine innings in a small sample size this year — something dragging down his more analytical numbers.
The matchup of two lefties favors the Mets, and New York is hitting far better than Washington over the past month.
Mets vs Nationals same-game parlay (SGP)
Mets moneyline
Over 8
James Wood to record a hit
Given both teams can hit and neither pitcher is particularly overwhelming, I’ll take the Over to pair with the Mets winning.
I’ll round out this SGP with a bet on James Wood to start his career with a hit. He put up a .326 average against lefties in the minors this year, which is enough for me to take a shot on him to get one knock tonight.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mets vs Nationals odds
Mets vs Nationals live odds
Mets vs Nationals opening odds
- Run line: New York -1.5 (+153) | Washington +1.5 (-171)
- Moneyline: New York -108 | Washington +100
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (+101) | Under (-113)
Mets vs Nationals spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Nationals have won 11 units for bettors this year, while the Mets are down about 1.5 units.
- New York is 4-1 in Peterson’s starts this year. Washington has gone 7-9 when Gore takes the mound.
- The Over holds the 43-36 advantage in Mets games this season. The Under has a 42-38 edge when the Nationals play.
- New York is playing to an average total of 9.60 runs on the year, while Washington is averaging a total of 8.40 runs.
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Mets vs Nationals trend
The Mets are 3-0 against the Nationals so far this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Nationals
Mets vs Nationals game info
| Location: | Nationals Park, Washington, DC |
| Date: | Monday, 7-1-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:45 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SNY, MASN |
| Mets starting pitcher: | David Peterson (3-0, 3.67 ERA) |
| Nationals starting pitcher: | MacKenzie Gore (6-7, 3.60 ERA) |
Mets vs Nationals latest injuries
Mets vs Nationals weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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