A pair of Top 25 teams clash on Wednesday at Mizzou Arena where the No. 15 ranked Missouri Tigers host the No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide.
The Tide opened as 1-point faves and while the line has flipped to favor the Tigers my Alabama vs. Missouri predictions still like this Bama offense to have a big night.
Here are my best free college basketball picks for this SEC clash on February 19.
Alabama vs Missouri prediction
My best bet
Alabama team total Over 84.5 (-120 at bet365)
My analysis
The Alabama Crimson Tide are third in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency and first in adjusted tempo, which has led to them averaging 90.3 points per game.
The Missouri Tigers are 11th in adjusted offense but have been vulnerable on the other end of the floor, ranking 44th in adjusted defense. They are also 66th in average possession length, so they won't slow down Alabama's up-tempo attack.
The Crimson Tide are coming off just their fourth loss of the season, falling to No. 1 Auburn at home. They still finished with 85 points in that contest despite shooting just 5-for-26 (19%) from 3-point range.
While Auburn's stingy defense ranks 20th in the country in opponent 3-point percentage (29.8%), Mizzou is outside the Top 150 with an opponent 3PT% of 33.6%. The Tide shoot 37.5% from deep away from home, so expect positive regression in that area.
The Tigers are also eighth in the SEC in opponent 2-point percentage (50.4%) during conference play and are fresh off a game where they allowed Georgia to shoot 62% from inside the arc.
Meanwhile, the Tide have an SEC-best 57.6 2PT% during league play while boasting a sizzling 60.3 2PT% over the entire season. They've scored at least 85 points in each of their last eight games on the road and I don't see that streak ending here.
Alabama vs Missouri same-game parlay (SGP)
Alabama TT Over 84.5
Caleb Grill Over 13.5 points
Tony Perkins Over 2.5 assists
While I expect the Tide to put up points, I also expect Missouri's efficient offense to have success against an Alabama squad that surrenders 84.2 points per game away from home — the second-worst number among all high-major schools.
Mizzou sixth-man Caleb Grill has scored 15+ points in six of his last nine games and has been more efficient at home, where he has 54/52/87 shooting splits.
Meanwhile, point guard Tony Perkins has dropped 3+ dimes in nine of his last 14 contests and he's coming off a four-assist performance against Georgia.
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Alabama vs Missouri odds
Alabama vs Missouri live odds
Alabama vs Missouri opening odds
- Spread: Alabama -1 (-110) | Missouri +1 (-110)
- Moneyline: Alabama -115 | Missouri -105
- Over/Under: Over 171.5 (-110) | Under 171.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Alabama vs Missouri betting trend to know
The Crimson Tide have hit the team total Over in 11 of their last 14 away games (+7.45 Units / 46% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Alabama vs. Missouri.
How to watch Alabama vs Missouri
| Location | Mizzou Arena, Columbia, MO |
| Date | Wednesday, 2-19-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | SEC Network |
Alabama vs Missouri key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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