Kentucky looks to regain a winning record in SEC play when Vanderbilt visits Rupp Arena tonight.
The Commodores are also in desperate need of a win here to boost their tournament resume, and my Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky predictions expect AJ Hoggard to help secure a dub for the visitors.
Find out how in my college basketball picks for February 19.
Vanderbilt vs Kentucky prediction
My best bet
AJ Hoggard 5+ assists (-125 at bet365)
My analysis
When Texas beat Kentucky over the weekend, the ball was often in the hands of Tre Johnson. As such, no Longhorn had more than four assists on the day.
But when teams face the Wildcats with a point guard capable of distributing the ball, they tend to give up a high rate of assists. And with Kentucky's Lamont Butler absent from tonight’s game, I expect AJ Hoggard to have another strong assist outing.
The Wildcats sit middle of the pack in assist rate defense during SEC play, and that number goes up drastically without Butler’s strong on-ball defense. Yet despite playing 27 minutes in the first meeting, Butler still allowed Hoggard to notch six assists.
This came at the expense of Hoggard’s scoring output — with a 2-for-8 shooting night leading to just five points — but he made sure to get the ball to his teammates in good spots. It was also the start of a stretch of six games where he’s registered at least five assists in all but one contest.
And when he hits the road, he’s been just as consistent. Hoggard has four games with five or more dimes in Vanderbilt’s last five road games. While Vanderbilt has lost all of those games, he’s still making sure to distribute the ball for good looks, with an average assist rate of nearly 40% in those contests.
Hoggard is terrific at getting downhill off the dribble, but the Wildcats struggle mightily to defend against penetration. In addition, they force turnovers at one of the lowest rates in college basketball, and ShotQuality ranks them 351st in defensive spacing.
Five assists is a very low floor for Hoggard, and while -125 odds are a bit more than I’d like to see, I expected his total to be at least one higher. I’ll back him to get five or more and will also likely toss a small amount on 7+ assists at +300.
Vanderbilt vs Kentucky same-game parlay (SGP)
AJ Hoggard 5+ assists
Jason Edwards 20+ points
Kentucky team total Under 83.5
When Hoggard penetrates, I expect Jason Edwards to be one of the key beneficiaries. The guard dropped 24 points in the loss to Tennessee on Saturday, making six of his 10 outside attempts. He’s notched 20+ points in each of Vandy’s last five road games in conference play and will have another strong game.
Without Butler and Jaxson Robinson, the Wildcats' offense isn’t the same as it was earlier in the season. Robinson thrived at creating late in the shot clock, and Butler’s ball security was outstanding.
As such, Kentucky has failed to score 84 points in six of its last seven games, getting to exactly that number in the loss to Arkansas. Vanderbilt will get enough stops and do a good enough job controlling the tempo to keep the Wildcats Under 84 points.
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Vanderbilt vs Kentucky odds
Vanderbilt vs Kentucky live odds
Vanderbilt vs Kentucky opening odds
- Spread: Vanderbilt +6 | Kentucky +6
- Moneyline: Vanderbilt +205 | Kentucky -250
- Over/Under: Over 161 | Under 161
Odds courtesy of bet365
Vanderbilt vs Kentucky betting trend to know
Vanderbilt has covered the first-half spread in 10 of its last 13 away games (+6.40 Units / 43% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky.
How to watch Vanderbilt vs Kentucky
| Location | Rupp Arena, Lexington, KY |
| Date | Wednesday, 2-19-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | SEC Network |
Vanderbilt vs Kentucky key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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