The Arkansas Razorbacks need big wins to boost their NCAA resume before Selection Sunday.
In order to do so, Coach Cal may have to match the Auburn Tigers’ size, which means shuffling the lineup and possibly dropping a guard from the main rotation. That could mean less run for senior Johnell Davis, who is the focus of my Arkansas vs. Auburn predictions.
Find out how I'm fading the guard in my college basketball picks for February 19.
Arkansas vs Auburn prediction
My best bet
Johnell Davis Under 11.5 Points (-105 at bet365)
My analysis
Johnell Davis has fallen short of expectations after coming to Arkansas as the top-rated player in the transfer portal this offseason.
The former FAU star struggled to find his way in the Razorbacks’ rotation, and while he did show flashes of scoring brilliance when freshman star Boogie Fland was lost for the season last month, he’s gone cold the recent outings.
Davis has scored 13, 11, and seven points in his last three games, firing at a collective 11-for-39 from the field (28%), including just 2-for-14 from 3-point range. He saw his minutes spike after Fland’s injury but has logged just 28 minutes of floor time in two of those past three showings.
His involvement could take another hit tonight. Not only is Davis and the Razorbacks taking on an Auburn defense rated among the best in the land (giving up only 62.2 points per home game), but the Tigers’ size could have Calipari shifting his approach with Auburn.
After last weekend’s loss at Texas A&M, Calipari put out the idea of sliding 6-foot-11 reserve Jonas Aidoo into the starting lineup alongside 7-foot-2 center Zvonimir Ivisic — a pairing that could combat the Tigers’ interior beef (Auburn the 35th tallest team).
The shuffle would also likely bump a guard to the bench, with Davis’ struggles finding him sidelined. According to Arkansas beat reporter, Jackson Fuller of the Fort Smith Southwest Times Record, this game with Auburn could be the perfect laboratory to test out that bigger lineup, given the game script and many projections call for the Hogs to get blown out of the water.
Davis’ current player forecasts sit just shy of 10 points over 28 minutes of floor time. Given his current shooting woes against a superior defensive opponent and the threat of losing minutes to a larger lineup, I’m staying Under his scoring prop of 11.5 points tonight.
Arkansas vs Auburn same-game parlay (SGP)
Johnell Davis Under 11.5 Points
Zvonimir Ivisic 2+ 3-Pointers
Auburn Moneyline
Davis is shooting just 28% from the floor in his last three games and may lose minutes to a bigger lineup shift.
Ivisic’s ability to stretch the Auburn interior is vital to Arkansas' success. Some models call for 2.5 triples from the 7-footer tonight.
The Tigers could be a little flat, considering they just won an emotional game at Alabama on the weekend. However, Auburn will be able to at least pick up the win in its return home.
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Arkansas vs Auburn odds
Arkansas vs Auburn live odds
Arkansas vs Auburn opening odds
- Spread: Arkansas +16.5 | Auburn -16.5
- Moneyline: Arkansas +1400 | Auburn -3000
- Over/Under: Over 153.5 | Under 153.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Arkansas vs Auburn betting trend to know
Auburn has gone Over its team total in 22 of its last 34 games (+8.18 Units/21% ROI). Find more college basketball betting trends for Arkansas vs. Auburn.
How to watch Arkansas vs Auburn
| Location | Neville Arena, Auburn, AL |
| Date | Wednesday, 2-19-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Arkansas vs Auburn key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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