Tobacco Road is home to one national title contender, and that’s it for quality. The rest of the state may be about as disappointing as ever in recent memory. The North Carolina Tar Heels have gone 2-11-1 against the spread in ACC play, including 0-7-1 ATS since Jan. 18.
Worse yet, the North Carolina State Wolfpack have gone 3-11 outright in conference play, a mere one game out of the ACC cellar.
Tonight’s in-state matchup of disappointing seasons demands doubting one struggling team or the other, and my NC State vs. North Carolina predictions will emphasize some of those struggles. Find out more in my college basketball picks for Wednesday, February 19.
NC State vs North Carolina prediction
My best bet
NC State team total Under 68.5 (-120 at bet365)
My analysis
We don’t use the Q-word as much in college basketball as we do in college football. Some of that is simply because the stage is smaller. With 300+ college basketball teams playing 30-some games apiece, we are not as tuned into each ebb and flow as we are on Saturdays in the fall.
Perhaps we should wonder if NC State has quit on the season. At least, we should have wondered that before Saturday when the Wolfpack snapped a nine-game losing streak by beating Boston College. Then again, the Eagles are one of the two teams within even a game as bad as the Wolfpack are in the ACC standings.
That losing streak started with a 63-61 home loss to North Carolina, which was then favored by just 4.5. Tonight’s spread is five points heftier, a logical jump given the change in homecourt advantage.
The losing streak and the quit wonder both tie to NC State’s offense. Before the losing streak began, it ranked No. 112 in efficiency per barttorvik.com. Since then, it sits No. 194, 3.4 points worse per 100 possessions once adjusted for opponents.
The Wolfpack have cashed seven out of 10 Team Total Unders, and one of the exceptions came in a miserable blowout at Duke. Even including that, as well as the other two Team Total Overs, NC State has scored an average of 3.5 points fewer than bookmakers’ expectations in its last 10 games.
Those numbers line up, don’t they? The Wolfpack are disappointing bookmakers at nearly the exact same rate that their offense has fallen by. That is not a coincidence, and it should be a reliable trend to doubt again tonight.
NC State vs North Carolina same-game parlay (SGP)
NC State team total Under 68.5
Under 145
Marcus Hill Under 12.5 points
Of North Carolina State’s last 10 games, three of the four to eclipse their totals were the ones in which the Wolfpack also went Over the team total. If doubting that, then questioning the game’s Under is also logical.
Being skeptical of senior guard Marcus Hill stems from both recent performances and North Carolina’s defense. Hill has fallen short of this modest points prop in five of the last 10 games, including each of his last two. Do not put too much of an onus on him; when the entire offense is failing, it is easier for a defense to focus on the few offensive threats.
The Tar Heels will readily focus on Hill thanks to their excellent interior defense, giving up just 47.7% on 2-point field goals in ACC play, No. 4 in the conference.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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NC State vs North Carolina odds
NC State vs North Carolina live odds
NC State vs North Carolina opening odds
- Spread: NC State +11.5 | North Carolina -11.5
- Moneyline: NC State +475 | North Carolina -650
- Over/Under: Over 147 | Under 147
Odds courtesy of bet365
NC State vs North Carolina betting trend to know
Doubting NC State’s offense should not mean quick faith in North Carolina to cover -9.5; the Tar Heels are 0-6 ATS in their last six, falling short of bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 7.6 points. Find more college basketball betting trends for NC State vs. North Carolina.
How to watch NC State vs North Carolina
| Location | Dean E. Smith Center, Chapel Hill, NC |
| Date | Wednesday, 2-19-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
NC State vs North Carolina key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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