Mets vs Braves Predictions, Picks, Odds: Murphy Mashes Mets

The Atlanta Braves and New York Mets lock horns again for an interdivisional series starting Tuesday, June 6. 

The Mets have slumped as of late and will come into this game off a series sweep to the hands of the Toronto Blue Jays – who have, themselves, been mediocre. Meanwhile, the Braves are proof that all ".500 records in the last 10 games" can be vastly different as they come into this matchup off a series win against the Arizona Diamonds. 

This will be another significant interdivisional series duel, as they typically have been. Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks and predictions for Braves vs. Mets.

Mets vs Braves odds

Mets vs Braves predictions

I faced a dilemma in creating my best bet. 

I loved the Braves from my initial handicap, but my projections didn't see value in taking them outright. It forced me to look deeper into the market for that value, and I found it. I'm placing a wager on the same-game parlay of Sean Murphy to get a hit and the Braves money line at plus money for my best bet.

Getting Murphy hit at -260 felt like a win. I projected that price closer to -270 based on an expectation of seeing opposing pitcher Carlos Carrasco two times and a mixture of the Mets bullpen twice. Of course, I'm hoping we get lucky and he gets a third look at Carrasco, but even if he doesn't, I like our chances. 

No single baseball player has a higher run value (+8) against the four-seam fastball. There are also very few players in baseball with a higher wOBA against the fastball than Murphy — he’s eighth overall in the league. The fastball is Carrasco’s most-thrown pitch, but not only that, it's a pitch that he feels the most comfortable with. This part of the handicap is built on Murphy seeing a decent amount of the pitch he obliterates and delivering against it. It also helps that he's been relatively hot, with hits in eight of the last 10 games. 

I want to avoid getting into the historical dominance of the Braves over the Mets. It's hard to argue it has much value here. However, it is noteworthy that Atlanta has won four straight over New York in Atlanta, along with five out of the last six matchups. As for this specific meeting, there is a distinct pitching mismatch, and it's a simple breakdown.

Bryce Elder is an elite groundball pitcher. Producing soft contact is what he does, and he has a ground ball rate of over 57% to back it up. That's a problem for a Mets team who needs help generating fly balls with a ground ball rate at the sixth-highest in the league. 

On the other side, Carrasco struggles mightily to avoid contact. His whiff rate, K rate, and expected batting average (virtually anything indicating swings and misses) are all in the Bottom 20% of baseball. That feels even more problematic against the Braves, who essentially own the best offensive statistics in the game. Most notable of them all in this matchup? A chase contact rate tied for the fourth-best in baseball.

Back this same-game parlay tonight. The best way to get the most value out of a game in which the Braves overmatch their opponents. 

My best bet: Sean Murphy to get a hit + Braves moneyline SGP (+110 at bet365)

Mets vs Braves moneyline analysis

Obviously, I’m expecting the Braves to win this one. My projections priced them nearly precisely where they are in most markets at around -170 as of publication. Given the weather conditions, it could become a game of who can get the ball in the air at a higher clip, and that's quite clearly a no-contest for some of the reasons I've outlined above. 

As I noted earlier, both teams are on equal rest and travel, but they are in significantly different forms. The Mets are 5-5 in their last 10 games, which isn't good enough in such a highly competitive division. Meanwhile, the Braves have won two straight and continue to sit atop the NL East. From this writer's perspective, there's virtually every reason to think the Braves are simply the more talented team and should be expected to win more often than not when the two face off. 

Mets vs Braves Over/Under analysis

Even if you forgot the pitching matchups tonight and considered that these were two league-average hitting teams, I'd lean to the Over tonight. The balls should be flying. It'll be a humid night in Georgia, with winds blowing out to left center field. Perfect for opposite-field hitters but fairly solid for any flyball hitter with power. Now you add the pitching issues, particularly on the Braves side, and you have a recipe for runs. 

With all that said, I will stay away from a pregame bet in this market. Instead, I will place a ½ unit on the Braves to score in the first inning at +155 on DraftKings. This has been a widely exploited market for Atlanta because they lead the majors in first-inning runs, and lead-off hitter Ronald Acuna is having an MVP-caliber season. I'll take the bait here in a good matchup, and if it loses, look to get in on the live total — a number that I projected at around 9.5.

Mets vs Braves game info

Starting pitchers

Carlos Carrasco (2-2, 5.74 ERA): Carrasco will enter today with two disturbing metrics. His wOBA is the third-worst in baseball at .359, and his xWOBA is the fifth-worst at .337. Add that to the ERA numbers and an expected ERA that aligns closely, and things look bleak. Carrasco can't avoid contact so far this season. Some of his metrics are average, but more is needed when you have a whiff rate in the Bottom 20% of baseball and an expected batting average close to that. He's 36 years old now, and it's indeed shown. With all that said, he'll come into this game off his best start of the season, when he allowed just one earned run in six innings against the Philadelphia Phillies. 

Bryce Elder (3-0, 1.92 ERA): Many people argue that Elder can't sustain this start. His metrics could be more impressive; most of them could be better. However, it comes with the significant caveat of Elder having one of baseball's highest ground ball rates. Many other metrics will be meaningful only when someone can significantly raise that number. May was an even better month for Elder than the previous one. He posted a 1.72 ERA over six starts and notched one win. He'll come into this off a seven-inning performance against the Oakland Athletics, where he allowed one earned run. 

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