The Atlanta Braves will look for a three-game sweep tonight vs. the New York Mets who have dropped five straight. It will be a battle of the best when Justin Verlander matches up with Spencer Strider, who is striking out 40% of the batters he’s seen this season.
With Pete Alonso likely out and the Mets getting long on the moneyline, should bettors consider hopping on the Mets and more specifically Verlander, who's looking more like his 2022 self after some early-season shoulder issues?
Find out which pitcher I think will have the greatest impact — or lack thereof — in my MLB picks for the Mets vs. Braves on June 8.
Mets vs Braves odds
Mets vs Braves predictions
The New York Mets will likely be without Pete Alonso as he took a ball off the hand yesterday and had to exit. The X-rays came back negative but it’s unlikely he starts today, immediately weakening New York's lineup. That could lead to a less aggressive approach at the plate for the offense, and considering Spencer Strider is projected for 2.01 walks, per THE BAT, his Over 1.5 walk market is showing value.
Strider is coming off a four-walk performance vs. the Diamondbacks and has gone Over 1.5 walks in eight of his 12 starts this season, including a May 1 outing vs. the Mets where he had a trio of free passes.
Alonso’s 10% BB rate is a decent clip, but there are also five starters in the lineup who have a better walk rate than the New York clean-up hitter. On the season, the Mets walk at the eighth-highest rate while also striking out at the fourth-lowest rate, a recipe for disaster against a high K-rate pitcher such as Strider.
Some shopping around can help bettors here as Strider’s Over 1.5 walks are as short as -152 and as long as -143 at Betway. This play has about a 61% win probability giving us a few percentages of expected value on the implied price.
If this is below your threshold in terms of pricing, don’t add the Verland Over 1.5 walks to it. Instead, add the Strider Over 1.5 earned runs, which is also around a 60% win probability for +140.
My best bet: Spencer Strider Over 1.5 walks (-143)
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Mets vs Braves moneyline analysis
The Atlanta Braves and Charlie Morton opened at -115 yesterday vs. Max Scherzer before closing at -130, and now the Braves, who are 7.5 games ahead of the Mets in the NL East, sit as short as -175 favorites. Most books opened Atlanta ML a little longer so early bettors have already hit Strider and the home side.
Justin Verlander isn’t missing as many bats as he did last season but he looks back to form and 100% over a shoulder strain that was hampering him early in the season. Verlander is coming off a 115-pitch outing vs. the Jays where he struck out a season-high eight batters over six frames and continues to pump the strike zone with a 65% strike rate.
He isn’t getting hit hard, he’s making batters chase, and if those whiffs start coming around, maybe getting Verlander at +155 is the side tonight.
The hardest part of this handicap is the health of Pete Alonso, who exited yesterday after taking a pitch off his hand. His X-rays came back negative and he is day-to-day, but I think this +155 price is assuming Alonso is sitting this one out.
He is easily the team’s best bat but this is still an offense that has struggled with him in the lineup and the Mets’ best chance at winning is with Verlander keeping the Braves’ bats at bay. New York can still win a 3-1 or 3-2 game tonight without the clean-up hitter.
Yes, the Mets are riding a five-game losing skid and the offense is inconsistent, but if Verlander can keep his opponent to two runs or fewer — something he’s done in four of his six starts — +155 is a solid price vs. Strider who strikes out a ton but can give up runs, as well.
Strider misses bats at an elite level with a 20% strike-swinging rate, but he’s also given up two or more runs in five of his last six starts where he owns a 3.86 ERA. It’s still a great number, but Strider isn’t bulletproof and the Mets have already tagged him this season when they took the right-hander for four runs on five hits over five innings on May 1.
I’m not saying Verlander is in Cy Young form, but there are much worse pitchers to back as a +155 dog. Strider to not record the win at -105 is also showing some value, but I’m more interested in the +155 road dogs tonight.
Mets vs Braves Over/Under analysis
Last night’s total moved a full run to the Over after opening at 8.5 before closing at 9.5, and Over bettors had a winning ticket by the seventh inning.
Today’s total opened at 8.5 -115 to the Under, moved to -105 early this morning, and then settled back to -115 to the Under as of 9:00 a.m. ET.
Last night’s Over movement was heavily based on great hitting conditions and we’re seeing a similar setting today with 80-degree temps and double-digit winds blowing out.
I’m not as high on the Over today as an Alsonso-less lineup lacks power, Strider misses more bats and has fewer balls in play than any pitcher in baseball, and Verlander is trending towards an increase in his K percentage.
Other than New York’s set-up man Adam Ottavino, all relief pitchers will be available which is key, as THE BAT is projecting that neither starter gets to the 18-out mark. It’s also projecting Under six total runs from both starters combined, meaning the bullpens might have fewer than three total runs to protect the Under... which doesn’t show much value on either side of this 8.5 total.
If bettors do like the Under, I’d suggest waiting as the weather will likely drive this total up slightly, but the Over 8.5 -105 might be the best price Over bettors can get on.
Mets vs Braves game info
| Location: | Truist Park, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Thursday, June 8, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SportsNet New York, Bally Sports South |
Starting pitchers
Justin Verlander (2-3, 4.25 ERA): Verlander will be making his seventh start of the season and the Mets are 2-4 SU in those games. The RHP got his strikeout game back last start but with a 24% CSW% and a 9% swinging-strike rate, Verlander has not been as dominant as seasons passed. He has a 30:9 K/BB ratio over 36 innings. THE BAT is projecting 90 pitches, 16 outs, 5.80 strikeouts, and 2.91 earned runs.
Spencer Strider (6-2, 2.97 ERA): Strider continues to miss bats and currently leads baseball with a 40% K rate. He has a 113:26 K/BB ratio over 69.2 innings of work and is the current NL Cy Young betting favorite at +220 (bet365). At home this year, the young righty has struck out 61 batters over 35 innings with nine walks. The Braves are 10-2 SU when he starts, with those two losses coming against elite offenses in the Dodgers and the Jays. THE BAT projects 99 pitches, 17.3 outs, 8.46 strikeouts, and 2.06 earned runs.
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The Under is 4-0-1 in the Braves' last five after allowing five runs or more in their previous game. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Braves
