We have a pennant race for the ages in the National League East.
Atlanta defeated the New York Mets and Jacob de Grom 5-2 Friday night to tie New York for first-place in the NL East standings. Game 2 of this three-game series has the Mets’ Max Scherzer taking on Atlanta and Kyle Wright.
Who will end Saturday first in the NL East? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for the New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves for this October 1 showdown.
Mets vs Braves best odds
Mets vs Braves picks and predictions
This is a big game for both clubs, and there’s nothing better than nighttime baseball in October. We like Max Scherzer, but Kyle Wright will have the right stuff and should best Scherzer through at least the first five innings.
Atlanta has won his past eight starts (his 20 wins lead the majors) and is 10-3 this season when Wright is on the mound at Truist Park. The Braves offer nearly five runs of support in Wright appearances, winning even when he doesn’t have his best stuff.
The Braves hurler has pitched tough down the stretch, scattering eight hits or fewer in each of his past 16 starts. During this amazing stretch, Wright has allowed 32 earned runs with 79 K’s over 90.1 frames.
The Mets are far from an easy out, slashing .263/.335/.416/.751 and handed Wright his only loss during this amazing run. The Atlanta hurler allowed six earned runs with four bombs over six frames in Queens on August 4th, and this collection of Mets bats slash .347/.397/.681/1.078 against Wright over 72 career at-bats.
Scherzer has been filthy this season. Despite spending time on the IL with hamstring issues, he’s still one of the best in the game. The Mets are 7-3 when Mad Max takes the hill as the away favorite, but just 8-6 over his last 14 starts.
Scherzer is 3-0 against Atlanta this season, and this collection of Braves slash just .210/.252/.407/.659 over 214 career at-bats, with 78 strikeouts and eight bombs.
So why Atlanta? The Braves are 14-1 over Wright’s last 15 starts, with the only blemish coming against these Mets in Queens. Scherzer has dominated baseball for over a decade, but in October, he's just 7-8 over 15 career starts when baseball matters. Baseball matters Saturday, and I’m going with the Braves to win the first five frames.
My best bet: Atlanta first five moneyline (+114 at FanDuel)
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Mets vs Braves moneyline analysis
Home underdogs are always in play, and the Braves +108 at FanDuel is the best number currently on the board.
Atlanta has the best home record in the NL East and is 73-32 during night games. Conversely, New York is 47-32 as the away side and 60-41 playing under the bright lights.
Both bullpens have been terrific, but the edge goes to Atlanta. Its pen posted a 3.02 team ERA, and closer Kenley Jansen is second in baseball with 38 saves.
Finally, Scherzer has given up 11 bombs this season, and nine of them were at night. Atlanta is second in baseball with 1.5 home runs per game, and 171 of its 237 home runs this season were struck playing under the lights.
Mets vs Braves Over/Under analysis
Saturday night should have a playoff atmosphere, and the 6.5-run total reflects that.
We have great pitching and terrific offensive players in this matchup, and maybe that number is too low.
The over is 8-1-1 over their last 10 meetings, and seasonally the majority of the results for both clubs have been over the oddsmakers’ number.
Over 15 Scherzer October starts, the Over is 7-6-2, and this season, the Over is 11-10-1 when Scherzer takes the hill for N.Y. Conversely, the Over is 11-17-1 this season when Wright is on the mound.
Mets vs Braves trend to know
Braves are 9-1 in their last 10 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Braves
Mets vs Braves game info
| Location: | Truist Park, Atlanta, GA |
| Date: | Saturday, October 1, 2022 |
| First pitch: | 7:20 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Starting pitchers
Max Scherzer (11-4, 2.13 ERA): Scherzer is expected to make the start, and over his past five starts has allowed seven earned runs with 35 strikeouts over 30.2 frames. He posts an above-average 2.84 xERA alongside a 3.21 xFIP and his away 3.15 xFIP indicates Max Scherzer is still spitting seeds at age 38.
Kyle Wright (20-5, 3.18 ERA): Wright should man the bump, and he’s given up 13 earned runs with 27 whiffs over 27.2 innings against the Mets this season. He posts a solid 3.80 xERA with a 3.29 xFIP, but his home 3.14 xFIP seems to suggest his best stuff is reserved for Truist Park, and the Mets will need the right stuff in order to beat him.
Mets vs Braves latest injuries
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Mets vs Braves weather
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