Two lackluster National League teams go at it when the St. Louis Cardinals host the New York Mets for the opener of a three-game set at Busch Stadium.
The Mets were swept by the Tampa Bay Rays over the weekend while the Cardinals are coming off losing two of three against the, wait for it, Chicago White Sox. These results have my Mets vs. Cardinals predictions in a tizzy.
The MLB odds say the opener should be a tight one as Sean Manaea toes the rubber against Kyle Gibson but what do my MLB picks say for Monday, May 6?
Mets vs Cardinals prediction
My best bet
Mets -0.5 first five innings (+135 at DraftKings)
My analysis
Starters Sean Manaea and Kyle Gibson come into this matchup pitching fairly well with solid sub-4.00 ERAs, however, both could be in for a bit of a regression soon but one team is better equipped to make that happen tonight.
Manaea has gotten his season off to a solid start. Outside of getting tagged for six earned runs in a start against the Kansas City Royals, the lefty has given up four earned runs over his other five starts. That’s good for a 3.07 ERA, but his command has been a bit of a problem.
The New York Mets’ southpaw is walking a lot of batters and getting that pitch count elevated quickly. As a result, his expected ERA is sitting at 4.77 and in the 25th percentile.
Luckily, the St. Louis Cardinals have been pretty terrible at producing runs against left-handed pitchers. St. Louis is hitting just .180 as a team vs. lefties. That’s dead last in baseball. The Cards also rank 29th in OPS and wRC+.
On the other side, Gibson has allowed two runs or fewer in four of his six starts and pitched into at least the sixth inning in all of those. But Gibson is also a pitcher dealing with control issues which can lead to hits and walks. His 5.58 xERA and .272 opponent-expected batting average rank in the 12th and 22nd percentile among MLB pitchers respectively.
While the Cards have struggled vs. southpaws, the Mets have been surprisingly effective against righties. They rank 11th in wRC+ and 16th in batting average vs. right-handed pitchers this season.
With that in mind I like the Mets to have the lead through five innings.
Mets vs Cardinals same-game parlay (SGP)
Mets -0.5 — First Five
Over 4.5 — First Five
Kyle Gibson Over 1.5 walks
In that same mindset let’s add the Over 4.5 first-five inning total to this same-game parlay. While the Cardinals' numbers against left-handers have been downright atrocious, they still have players like Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt in the lineup. Players who should still be capable of turning things around.
Now, I took Sean Manaea to go Under 16.5 outs recorded in my MLB Player Props article earlier today, but that number has come down, so instead let’s look at Gibson to go Over his walks allowed prop.
Gibson has handed out two or more free passes in five of his six starts this season and the Mets have the sixth-highest walk rate in baseball. Over 1.5 walks for Gibson looks as solid as bets come.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mets vs Cardinals odds
Mets vs Cardinals live odds
Mets vs Cardinals opening odds
- Run line: New York +1.5 -170 | St. Louis -1.5 +145
- Moneyline: New York +100 | St. Louis -120
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Mets vs Cardinals spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Cardinals opened this National League matchup as roughly -120 home favorites and the line has moved too far off that number as of yet.
- It's a little surprising considering how poorly the Cardinals have been hitting against left-handed pitchers this season, and they are coming off back-to-back losses to the worst team in baseball (White Sox).
- The total hit the board at an even 8 and that's where the number remains as of Monday afternoon.
- The Cardinals have been one of the best Under bets in baseball going 11-21 O/U to this point in the season. But with a reasonable total and two starters who struggle with command, this could be a spot where they cash an Over.
Mets vs Cardinals trend
The Mets have hit the Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games for +13.90 Units and a 22% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Cardinals
Mets vs Cardinals game info
| Location: | Busch Stadium, St. Louis, MO |
| Date: | Monday, 5-6-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:45 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SNY, BSMW |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Sean Manaea (1-1, 3.07 ERA) |
| Cardinals starting pitcher: | Kyle Gibson (2-2, 3.79 ERA) |
Mets vs Cardinals latest injuries
Mets vs Cardinals weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
