Mets vs Marlins Predictions, Picks, Odds: New York Tees off on Luzardo

The New York Mets will look to start the 2023 season with a second consecutive win as they visit the Miami Marlins for an NL East matchup on Friday night.

The Mets scored a 5-3 win over the Marlins on Opening Day. Max Scherzer picked up the win with six innings of work, while Starling Marte and Jeff McNeil each contributed two hits. New York has had to scramble to rearrange its rotation behind Scherzer due to injuries, which leaves us with an unexpected matchup in tonight’s game.

We’ll talk about how that could change things for bettors in our free MLB picks and predictions for Mets vs. Marlins on March 31.

Mets vs Marlins odds

Mets vs Marlins predictions

The Mets never seem to have much injury luck, and they’re once again dealing with issues with their starting pitching heading into the 2023 season. New addition Justin Verlander went on the injury list on Thursday due to a muscle strain, and while that doesn’t look to be a serious injury, it will keep him out of action for at least a while.

The Mets have also placed fifth starter Jose Quintana on the IL, as he has undergone rib surgery. That means New York will once again be leaning on its pitching depth, and David Peterson will get the ball for the second game of the season.

Peterson should not be underestimated. While he has never been a critical piece for the Mets, he has filled in admirably when asked, particularly in the 2022 season. Peterson went 7-5 with a 3.83 ERA in 105.2 innings last year, starting 19 games but also making some appearances out of the bullpen when needed.

Peterson had a mixed bag in three starts against the Marlins last year, going 1-1 with a 3.46 ERA against Miami. While he never went deep into those games (the Mets rarely push Peterson past the sixth inning), he was effective enough to keep his team in games and leave the bullpen with a reasonable amount of work to do on the back end.

The Marlins are also running out a starting pitcher that’s something of a question mark in Jesus Luzardo. The lefty had the best year of his young career in 2022, going 4-7 with a 3.32 ERA over the course of 100.1 innings.

While his performance last season was certainly encouraging — in 2021, he put up a 6.61 ERA while splitting time between the Oakland Athletics and Miami. In two starts against New York that year, Luzardo went 0-1 with a 6.75 ERA, lasting a total of only 9.1 innings.

While the Mets lineup is depressed slightly against left-handed pitching, they still tended to get the job done last season, putting up 4.49 runs per game against southpaw starters. On the other hand, Peterson — also a lefty — looks like the kind of pitcher that could give the Marlins lineup trouble.

For instance, while Miami brought in AL batting champion Luis Arraez to bolster its lineup, he hit just .266 against left-handed pitchers, and his OPS was down 140 points compared to when he hit against righties.

While this matchup might look initially promising for the Marlins, the Mets are the team to beat again on Friday. I’m backing New York on the run line tonight.

My best bet: Mets -1.5 (-150 at BetMGM)

Mets vs Marlins moneyline analysis

The Mets are the slightest of favorites in tonight’s game, with New York opening as about a -120 pick. That number has tightened even more, with the Mets now at -115 or shorter at most sites, while it’s hard to get even money on the Marlins anywhere.

While New York isn’t as strong against left-handed pitching as they were against righties, it would be a mistake to assume this is a big handicap for them. The Mets went 32-23 last year against lefty starters and were also 13-6 against the Marlins. If these trends hold up heading into 2023, the Mets should continue to find success in these games in Miami.

As I noted above, Peterson has had reasonable success against the Marlins in the past and should be able to handle pitching to the Miami lineup this evening. On the other hand, Luzardo struggled in two starts against the Mets and remains inconsistent. For his career, Luzardo has a 5.40 ERA against the Mets in four starts.

It’s hard to even call this a road game for New York. Listen to any game in Miami, and the cheers are typically louder for the Mets than the Marlins, with plenty of fans sporting “Queens South” shirts for Opening Day on Thursday.

With the crowd behind the Mets and a pitching matchup that should at least be even for them, it’s hard to pick against New York tonight. I’m leaning towards the Mets on all bets, whether it be moneyline or runline.

Mets vs Marlins Over/Under analysis

The Over/Under on tonight’s game opened at 7.5 runs. As of early afternoon on Friday, many sites have moved up to an 8-run total, with others juicing the Over at 7.5.

As I predicted yesterday, the Mets and Marlins offenses came alive late after initially struggling against Max Scherzer and Sandy Alcantara in their first few innings.

This time around, these teams won’t have to deal with Cy Young-level pitching at any point in the game. This is also a game where both teams should get into the bullpens relatively early. That’s a relative weakness on both sides, just as we saw in the opener.

The Mets are even more vulnerable than usual after the injury to closer Edwin Diaz during the World Baseball Classic, so there should be scoring opportunities peppered throughout the match for both teams.

Given that the Mets are one of the better offensive teams in the league and the Marlins have bolstered their offense this year, I think these teams could combine for more runs than expected. This is especially the case early on in the season until books catch up with what could be initially a slightly higher-scoring environment.

I’m leaning towards the Over, particularly if you can still get it at 7.5.

Mets vs Marlins game info

Mets vs Marlins betting preview

Starting pitchers

David Peterson (0-0, 0.00 ERA): Peterson wasn’t expected to immediately play a role in the Mets rotation, but injuries have pressed him into immediate service. He was a solid 7-5 with a 3.83 ERA last season in a mix of work as a starter and out of the bullpen. Peterson brings a strong slider to the table, though his control is often a question mark.

Jesus Luzardo (0-0, 0.00 ERA): Luzardo improved dramatically in 2022, as the 25-year-old southpaw posted a 3.32 ERA, a 3.12 FIP, and a 1.037 WHIP. That’s a promising sign for Luzardo, who was once one of the top prospects in all of baseball. He also showed greatly improved command in 2022, boasting a 3.43 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

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The Mets are 6-1 against the Marlins in their last seven meetings in Miami. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Marlins

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