The Baltimore Orioles will look to improve on the best record in the American League as they host the New York Mets on Saturday night.
The Mets (50-59) were perhaps the biggest sellers in the league at the trade deadline, and are now playing out the string with a depleted roster. The Orioles (68-42) hold a two-game lead in the competitive AL East race, and should make the playoffs for the first time since 2016.
Baltimore had no trouble winning the first game of this series, and New York doesn’t figure to put up much resistance in the second game based on the MLB odds. We’ll break down the matchup in our free MLB picks and predictions for Mets vs. Orioles on August 5.
Mets vs Orioles odds
Mets vs Orioles predictions
Through the first 100 games of their season, the Mets were simply a disappointing, underperforming team that was frustrating for fans to watch. That was bad enough for the team with the highest payroll in baseball, but matters got far worse when New York chose to deal away most of their tradable assets ahead of the trade deadline.
The results? The Mets are 0-4 in the month of August, including an improbable three-game sweep at the hands of the lowly Kansas City Royals. They then proceeded to lose 10-3 to the Orioles on Friday night. In theory, the Mets should have enough talent left — at least in their lineup — to win some games. In reality, New York is going through the motions after the fire sale.
Pitching will be the area where the Mets are most deficient for the remainder of 2023. On Saturday night, New York will put Tylor Megill on the mound. The 28-year-old has a 5.17 ERA on the year, struggling both to put away hitters and find command of his pitches. Sadly, that might make him the second-best starter remaining on the team, outside of All-Star Kodai Senga.
Megill faces a serious challenge on Saturday night against the Orioles. Baltimore has been one of the best teams in the league, and features an excellent young lineup that is averaging 4.95 runs per game. The Orioles are only getting more lethal as the season progresses, hitting .307 and averaging 6.57 runs over their last seven games.
Were the Mets playing up to their potential this year, there might be some concern that New York could contend in a slugfest against Baltimore starter Kyle Gibson. But not only has Gibson thrown well lately — he’s allowed just six runs in 18 innings over his last three starts — the Mets have averaged just 3.33 runs per game over their last nine outings.
This is essentially a free game for the Orioles to pick up in the AL East race, and losing it would be a disaster from Baltimore’s perspective. The Orioles should not only win this game, but do so going away. I’d be happy to take the odds on giving just about any number of runs here, but for the best balance of value and return, I’ll be taking Baltimore on the run line.
My best bet: Orioles -1.5 (+112 at FanDuel)
Mets vs Orioles same-game parlay
Orioles -1.5
Over 9.5
Gunnar Henderson 2+ total bases
My same-game parlay picks for today’s game are based on two key expectations: that Baltimore will win this game easily, and that there will be plenty of runs scored tonight. That starts with continuing to back the Orioles on the run line, giving 1.5 runs to the Mets.
I’m also taking the Over at 9.5 runs. Both lineups are capable, with even New York having the kind of talent that should produce a few runs against Gibson. However, the Orioles should do most of the scoring, especially against a struggling Megill.
With that in mind, I’m also picking Gunnar Henderson to rack up at least two total bases. Henderson does most of his damage against righthanded pitchers, and has been among the hottest hitters in the Baltimore lineup lately. That should make Megill easy pickings for the 22-year-old.
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Mets vs Orioles moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Orioles opened tonight’s game as a -175 favorite. The public has only pushed the line further in Baltimore’s favor, with Orioles -180 being the consensus moneyline as of Saturday morning. The best available number on Baltimore is still -175, while you can get +160 on the Mets.
These two teams have been two of the most polarizing squads for bettors this season. New York has been an utter disappointment, and has lost more than 26 units for the season. Meanwhile, the Orioles are up nearly 30 units on the moneyline as they have come into their own in 2023.
Those trends aren’t changing tonight. Baltimore is one of the best teams in the majors, playing some of its best baseball right now. The Mets are done for the season, finishing the year with a roster of veterans with nothing to play for and minor-leaguers getting a look in meaningless games. The Orioles are the clear play here, no matter how you want to bet them.
The total for this game opened at 9.5, and that remains the consensus Over/Under. There’s disagreement between the books as to which side has the edge, however, and you can get either -106 on the Under or -108 on the Over.
The Mets have mostly played below the total this year, with the Under going 58-44 in their games. The Orioles have seen the opposite trend, with the Over putting up a 57-47 record during Baltimore’s contests in 2023.
Today’s game has all the signs of a high-scoring affair. Neither team is throwing a frontline starter, and both lineups are capable of scoring runs. We also saw the first game of this series hit the Over at 13 runs with a similar pitching matchup. I’m leaning towards the Over again tonight.
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Trend to know
The Orioles are 5-1 on the run line in their last six games. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Orioles
Mets vs Orioles game info
| Location: | Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Saturday, August 5, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SNY, MASN |
Starting pitchers
Tylor Megill (6-4, 5.17 ERA): With the departure of Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, Megill figures to take on a major role in the Mets rotation down the stretch. However, the 28-year-old has never been an effective major league starter, and is struggling this year. Megill has a 1.668 WHIP, and is walking 4.9 batters per nine innings as he struggles to find his control. In his last outing, Megill gave up four earned runs on four walks and four hits over 2 1/3 innings of work against the Houston Astros on June 21.
Kyle Gibson (10-6, 4.53 ERA): Now an 11-year veteran, Gibson has spent most of his MLB career as a back-of-the-rotation starter. He’s been able to eat innings for the Orioles this year, making a league-leading 23 starts. In 133 innings, Gibson has been good enough to give Baltimore a chance in most outings, and his 3.78 FIP suggests he’s throwing better than his ERA suggests. He’s also been better as of late. In his last start, Gibson gave up just one run on four hits over six runs against the Toronto Blue Jays.
