The New York Mets will hope to end a run of six series without getting two wins in Sunday’s rubber match game against the Philadelphia Phillies.
The Mets secured just their second win in even games on Saturday, beating the Phillies 4-2 behind a strong outing from Max Scherzer. But to win the series, they will need to hope Carlos Carrasco can end a run of poor starts. Even then it might not be enough, with the Philadelphia rolling Zack Wheeler onto the mound — whose strikeout rate is among the best of any starter in Major League Baseball.
Find out why the pitching matchup will help you in the betting markets in my MLB picks for the Mets vs Phillies on Sunday, June 25.
Mets vs Phillies odds
Mets vs Phillies predictions
So far this season, the New York Mets rank fourth-worst in the bigs with a .277 BABIP, while their 43.9% groundball rate is the ninth-highest. Only seven teams have a higher ground ball to flyball ratio than their 1.21 rate this year. Why is that important? Because on Friday night, Taijuan Walker dominated New York, allowing just three hits and striking out five over six innings, and the Philadelphia Phillies led 5-1 when he exited the game.
The Mets will now face a pitcher who has been even better this season, and who is striking out more batters. Zack Wheeler has been outstanding and the month of June has solidified that, with a 3.13 ERA and a K/BB rate of 22/5 through four starts. Those numbers are more impressive when you consider the month started with him allowing seven earned over 3 2/3 IP against the Nationals.
How did he follow that start? By allowing a total of two runs over his next three starts, in which he gave up just 11 hits and struck out 19 batters. And in each of those three starts, Wheeler received three or more runs of support from his offense.
I’ll be surprised if he gets only three runs on Sunday. Carlos Carrasco hasn’t just been bad this season, he’s been downright dreadful. He ranks in the 25th percentile or worse in exit velocity allowed and walk rate, and among the 10th percentile in xBA, xSLG, and strikeout rate.
Simply put, he’s getting hit hard, he’s getting hit often, and he’s not striking anybody out. His strikeout rate of 14.1% is nearly 10 percentage points lower than last season, and well below his career-worst mark.
That’s why my best bet on Sunday is for the Phillies to be the team who reaches four runs scored before the Mets. Philadelphia ranks third in MLB in BABIP with a .319 mark, and Carrasco’s BABIP against is .272 this year. Throw in a 4.30 BB/9 mark, and it’s easy to see why he’s given up 12 runs in his last three starts despite having just 12 2/3 IP. His last start of June isn’t going to go any better, as the Phillies should make easy work of him.
My best bet: Phillies race to four wins (-115 at DraftKings)
Mets vs Phillies same-game parlay
Phillies race to four runs
Wheeler 6+ Ks
Stott and Castellanos to record a hit
We’ve already discussed why the Phillies will get to four runs first, and why Wheeler is very likely to have a strong day. He’s had five or more strikeouts in all but three of his 15 starts so far, and given Walker punched out five the other night, I fully expect Wheeler to top that.
Philadelphia's defeat on Saturday wasn’t the fault of Nick Castellanos. The outfielder is making a late push for an All-Star appearance, and getting three hits in three ABs on Saturday doesn’t hurt his cause. His solo shot in the fourth inning was his ninth of the season, and gives him hits in both games in the series. He’s also registered a hit in nine of his last 10 games.
Bryson Stott is also hitting well of late, with a knock in four consecutive games. That includes two hits in four ABs on Saturday, which gave him hits in 11 of his last 12 contests.
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Mets vs Phillies moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Mets opened as underdogs at +150 and have seen that number grow at most places, while the Phillies opened as heavy favorites and are closing in on -200 as of Sunday morning. Given the pitching matchup the juice is justified, but it doesn’t make me any more willing to lay it. Instead, I’d look at the spread, where Philadelphia -1.5 pays out at plus odds.
Philadelphia sits in third place, just two games above .500 and 10 games behind Atlanta. It's actually been playing well in June, with a 14-7 record on the month. However, it's won just three of the last 11 meetings at home against New York, and seven of the last 26 matchups overall.
The Total of 9.0 has moved to even money or plus odds for the Under since opening, and that could offer some value. First of all, rain could cause this game to be shortened, as it's expected before first pitch, and thunderstorms are expected around 3:00 p.m. ET.
Secondly, the Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings between these two teams, as well as in Philadelphia’s last four games against NL East opponents. That’s not counting the fact that there haven’t been nine runs scored in any of Philadelphia’s last seven games.
Wheeler’s last 10 starts have seen less than nine runs scored on six occasions, with one other hitting the mark exactly. If he can keep the Mets from putting up runs, I’m not sure the Phillies will do enough even to Carrasco to push the total into the Over territory, as they’ve not scored more than six runs on their own in their last nine games.
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Trend to know
The Mets have lost each of Carlos Carrasco’s last four starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Phillies
Mets vs Phillies game info
| Location: | Citizen's Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Sunday, June 25, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 1:35 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MLB Network |
Starting pitchers
Carlos Carrasco (2-3, 6.34 ERA): Carrasco is having the worst season of his big-league career. He’s walking more batters than he has since his rookie season in 2009, and he’s allowing two four-baggers per nine innings. His K/9 nine has fallen off a cliff at just 5.73/9, and his FB velocity and spin rate are both quite low. His inability to stay ahead in the count has led to an xBA of .283 and xSLUG of .508 — which is bad news against a Philadelphia team ranked third in BABIP and fifth in line-drive rate.
Zack Wheeler (6-4, 3.48 ERA): Wheeler’s 10.02 K/9 mark is the second-best of his career, and his 0.51 HR/9 is helping him offset a .305 BABIP so far in 2023. He’s got a K/BB rate of 98/20 this season, doing a great job at limiting free passes. At home this season, he’s been dominant, with a 0.98 WHIP and 45 K in 43 IP. He doesn’t allow many hard-hit balls, avoids barrels at a high rate, and has outstanding arm extension with a high rate of spin on his pitches — all of which will be important against a Mets lineup that has five players averaging better than 91.4 EV this season.
