The Philadelphia Phillies host the New York Mets in Game 1 of the NLDS on Saturday afternoon at Citizens Bank Park. MLB odds have Philadelphia as a -178 favorite, while the total sits at seven.
My Mets vs. Phillies prediction is targeting the Under, primarily due to the pitching matchup.
Read on for my Saturday, October 5 MLB picks.
Mets vs Phillies prediction
Who will win Mets vs Phillies Game 1?
I'm optimistic about the Philadelphia Phillies starting off this series with a win in front of a great home crowd with the all-around stronger team. However, I don’t love the current -178 price tag, which is why I am targeting the total instead.
My Mets vs Phillies best bet
Under 7 (-104 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Right-hander Kodai Senga gets the ball for the New York Mets in Game 1 of the NLDS, which is a bit of a shock since he has only thrown 5.1 innings this season. In that lone start, Senga surrendered just two runs on two hits while striking out nine.
Yes, that is a small sample size, but his 29-game campaign in 2023 also sheds light on his potential. Senga posted a 12-7 record that season with a 2.98 ERA and 1.22 WHIP.
His underlying metrics were equally strong, as the right-hander ranked in the 60th percentile or higher in xERA, xBA, strikeout rate, and barrel rate. This success is likely to continue against the Phillies, a team he boasts a 1.46 ERA against through two career meetings. There were six or fewer total runs scored in each of those two outings.
Meanwhile, Philadelphia hands the ball to right-hander Zack Wheeler. The likely NL Cy Young runner-up, Wheeler posted a 16-7 record through 32 starts with a 2.57 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. His analytics back up the tremendous results, given that he ranks in the 92nd percentile in xERA, xBA and average exit velocity.
Both lineups are obviously strong, but Senga possesses a good track record against Philadelphia, and so does Wheeler against New York. The right-hander boasts a 3.32 ERA over his past 10 starts against the Mets.
Mets vs Phillies same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 7
Zack Wheeler Over 6.5 strikeouts
Kodai Senga Over 2.5 strikeouts
We’re also going to back Wheeler in the prop market, as he ranks in the 95th percentile in chase rate, 67th percentile in whiff rate, and 85th percentile in strikeout rate. You can currently find his strikeout prop at 6.5, a total he’s surpassed in five of his past six starts.
One of those outings came against New York, a game in which Wheeler accumulated eight punchouts. That brings us to Senga, who we’re going to back in the same market.
You may be wondering why his total is only at 2.5 despite racking up nine strikeouts in his lone start this season. The reason for this line discrepancy is that he hasn’t pitched an MLB game since July and is only expected to go two or three innings.
With that said, he can still accumulate three strikeouts in that window of work, considering that this current Philadelphia lineup possesses a 31.1% strikeout rate and 29.7% whiff rate through 45 combined career plate appearances against Senga.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mets vs Phillies odds
Mets vs Phillies live odds
Mets vs Phillies opening odds
- Moneyline: New York +169 | Philadelphia -185
- Run line: New York +1.5 | Philadelphia -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 7 | Under 7
Mets vs Phillies moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- Philadelphia opened as a -188 favorite and has since been bet down to -178.
- This line movement against Wheeler at home speaks dividends about Senga and the bullpen that follows.
- The total opened at 7.5 and has since been bet down to seven.
- This line movement makes sense, given all the aforementioned variables.
Mets vs Phillies trend
There have been six or fewer total runs scored in each of Senga’s two career starts against Philadelphia. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Phillies.
Mets vs Phillies Game 1 info
| Location: | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Saturday, 10-5-2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:08 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Kodai Senga (1-0, 3.38 ERA) |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Zack Wheeler (16-7, 2.57 ERA) |
Mets vs Phillies latest injuries
Mets vs Phillies weather
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