The Philadelphia Phillies will look to even up the NLDS at one game apiece after falling to the New York Mets on Saturday evening. The Phillies are home favorites on the MLB odds board after a late collapse in Game 1.
My Mets vs. Phillies prediction is targeting Philadelphia starter Cristopher Sanchez to continue his dominance at Citizens Bank Park this season.
Read on for my best MLB picks for Mets vs. Phillies on Sunday, October 6.
Mets vs Phillies prediction
Who will win Mets vs Phillies Game 2?
The Phillies need to bounce back in a big way on Sunday evening, but I’m not too confident in their bats. I think they’ll get the job done, but I’m targeting a pitching prop in Game 2.
My Mets vs Phillies best bet
Pick
Cristopher Sanchez Over 4.5 strikeouts (-115 at FanDuel)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Cristopher Sanchez gets the nod in Game 2 despite Aaron Nola being on the same staff. Sanchez stepped up in a big way for the Phillies this season and has been dominant at home, leading to Rob Thomson giving him the ball in an all-important Game 2.
Sanchez went 11-9 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.24 WHIP this season while striking out 153 in 181 2/3 innings across 31 starts. He’s 7-3 with 99 strikeouts and a 2.21 ERA at home in 110 innings as opposed to 4-6 with 54 strikeouts and a 5.02 ERA in 71 2/3 innings on the road this year.
The southpaw has also pitched well against these New York Mets. In three starts against the Mets, including two less than a month ago, he allowed six runs on 16 hits across 17 2/3 innings with 19 strikeouts. He had at least five strikeouts in all three matchups. That includes seven strikeouts in each of the two September meetings.
Overall this season, Sanchez had 5+ strikeouts in 16 of 31 starts — 11 of 17 at home. This is also potentially a ladder spot given those two seven-strikeout performances, a number he reached in 11 outings this year.
This line is set a bit lower than expected due to some possible aggressive managing in the playoffs, but even if Sanchez only goes five innings he has the stuff to get up to five strikeouts. Furthermore, the shadows at Citizens Bank Park give an advantage to the pitcher at this late afternoon start time.
Mets vs Phillies same-game parlay (SGP)
Cristopher Sanchez 5+ strikeouts
Kyle Schwarber 1+ hits
Phillies moneyline
Kyle Schwarber had two of the Phillies’ five hits on Saturday, including a mammoth leadoff home run against Kodai Senga. He was red-hot in September and hasn’t cooled off here in the postseason.
The Phillies are a much better team than the Mets and despite Saturday’s blowup, their bullpen is more rested and in a better spot as well. I’m backing them to bounce back to even the series on Sunday evening.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Mets vs Phillies odds
Mets vs Phillies live odds
Mets vs Phillies opening odds
- Moneyline: New York +124 | Philadelphia -146
- Run line: New York +1.5 | Philadelphia -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Mets vs Phillies moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Phillies odds are between -142 and -150 after opening at -146. The Phillies have gotten the majority of the handle and cash as of early Sunday afternoon.
- The Mets are as big as +128 underdogs after opening around +124.
- The total opened at a flat 8 but has moved up to 8.5 at some books.
Mets vs Phillies trend
The Phillies are 54-28 at home this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Mets vs. Phillies.
Mets vs Phillies Game 2 info
| Location: | Citizens Bank Park, Phladelphia, PA |
| Date: | Sunday, 10-6-2024 |
| First pitch: | 4:08 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Luis Severino (11-7, 3.91 ERA) |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Cristopher Sanchez (11-9, 3.32 ERA) |
Mets vs Phillies latest injuries
Mets vs Phillies weather
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