After their suspended game resumes on Saturday, the Mets and Red Sox will battle in the second of a three-game series in Boston. A good one should be in store with Max Scherzer and James Paxton toeing the slab, so where do we go in this game?
Let’s break down Mets vs. Red Sox in our MLB picks and predictions for Saturday, July 22.
Mets vs Red Sox odds
Mets vs Red Sox predictions
Let’s just start by saying that Max Scherzer has had better seasons. His ERA in the month of July now stands at 4.50 after he registered a 4.25 ERA in June. Surprisingly, he was better in the first two months of the season, when we were slightly concerned about the veteran.
Scherzer is turning things around, though. He spun seven shutout innings against the Dodgers in his last time out and has watched his expected batting average plummet here in July. Scherzer sat at .220 in May and .227 in June only to drop to .182 this month. Scherzer’s expected slugging is slightly higher, but it’s safe to say he was probably a bit unfortunate to give up 11 hits in his first two starts of July.
Home runs are still going to be an issue for Scherzer, who allowed five in those aforementioned two starts. He’s also walked eight batters in three starts this month, though he’s punched out 22.
So, what’s my point? Well, the Red Sox may not be a horrible matchup. They’re only walking in 6.9% of plate appearances over the last two weeks and while they’ve posted a ridiculous .252 isolated power, they’re going to have a slightly tougher time getting the bat on the ball against Scherzer, whose whiff rate has remained solid.
I think Scherzer can perform here on the road, but I’m worried about the slumping Mets, who own a 96 wRC+ against lefties. The Under is the play here.
My best bet: Under 9 (+100 at DraftKings)
Mets vs Red Sox same-game parlay
Under 9.5
Paxton 5+ Ks
Scherzer 6+ Ks
I feel foolish for loving both pitchers here, given one owns an ERA close to five runs in the month of July and the other is coming off a start where he allowed six runs in three innings. Unfortunately, that’s where I’m firmly planted when it comes to this game.
The Mets’ offense has been a huge letdown, and with that, I love this James Paxton prop. New York has struck out in an uncharacteristic 25.3% of plate appearances over the last two weeks and has really struggled in that area for the majority of the season now. Paxton punched out just four last outing, but he only went three innings. His strikeout rate is sitting around 28% and I have no fears about him getting to five as long as he pitches well enough to stay in the game.
Scherzer has gone for six or more strikeouts in his last six outings now and as we touched on before has done an excellent job of maintaining a high whiff rate. While Boston hasn’t exactly been a strikeout-happy team, neither were the Dodgers and Scherzer racked up six against them.
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Mets vs Red Sox moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The thing here is that the Red Sox offense is in a much, much better place than the Mets’ offense. Scherzer is a better pitcher than Paxton, but this season he’s been around the same by the numbers. Both men have done an equally good job in the strikeout department and while Paxton has had a couple of bad outings, he’s been much more consistent than his counterpart.
I think Paxton and the Red Sox are the play here if you want a side on the moneyline. Boston’s power is too ridiculous to ignore right now, and it has really done a good job at limiting strikeouts. The numbers are unsustainable given the low walk rate that Boston owns, but I do think you want to bet on the better offensive club here with all things being equal in the pitching department.
With that being said, the Red Sox have commanded 85% of the bets and 96% of the handle here. The heavier handle would indicate that big money is still on Boston, though New York is the ultimate contrarian play here.
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Mets vs Red Sox game info
| Location: | Fenway Park, Boston, MA |
| Date: | Saturday, July 22, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | WPIX, FS1, NESN |
Starting pitchers
Max Scherzer (8-3, 3.99 ERA): The veteran has now walked two or more in his last four starts, and in that time has allowed six home runs. His last start against the Dodgers saw him spin seven scoreless in arguably his best outing of the year.
James Paxton (5-2, 3.51 ERA): The big lefty has allowed more than two runs just three times all year. He’s walked four in nine innings this month with three home runs charged to his line, equating to an 8.00 ERA.
