Can the Mets continue their miracle run with Noah Syndergaard on the hill and two red-hot pitchers face off in Cincinnati. We break down today's odds and much more with our in-depth analysis, betting trends and fearless predictions in our MLB Daily Line Drive. **video
DOUBLE-PLAY PICKS
WASHINGTON NATIONAL AT NEW YORK METS (-120, 8 @ BETAMERICA)
Well, that was fun.
The Mets continued their miracle run thanks to scoring four runs in the bottom of the ninth for a thrilling 7-6 walk-off win over the Nationals. It was the Mets 14th win in their last 15 tries and now sit just a half-game out of the second NL wild card spot.
New York will attempt to keep this improbable run going, and inch even closer to a postseason when they hand the ball to Noah Syndergaard, while the Nats counter with Patrick Corbin.
Syndergaard has been a different pitcher since the All-Star game. In five starts since the break, “Thor” has pitched to a 1.78 ERA and a 0.99 WHIP while racking up 39 strikeouts in 35.1 innings.
Corbin meanwhile, has had a solid first season with the Nationals, pitching to a 3.43 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP. That said, the lefties home-road splits can’t be ignored. While Corbin has been nearly unhittable at Nationals Park, his ERA on the road is a sub-par 5.32 to go along with a 1.50 WHIP.
He must face a Mets lineup that is believing in themselves and not to mention red-hot. The Mets hit .289 against left-handed pitching at home and they’re hitting .295 against lefties over their last 10 games.
With all those factors and New York bullpen being slightly more trustworthy than Washington’s, we like the Mets miracle run to continue, particularly at this price.
Pick: Mets -120
CHICAGO CUBS AT CINCINNATI REDS (-110, 8.5 @ BETAMERICA)
The Cubs and Reds have split the first two games of their four-game set at the Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati and Game 3 is slated to be a doozy as two red-hot pitchers face off when Kyle Hendricks toes the rubber against Sonny Gray.
Hendricks is straight dealing with a 0.98 ERA and a 0.76 WHIP over his last three starts and hasn’t allowed more than two runs in a start since returning from a shoulder injury on July 2. Hendricks also owns a 2.70 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP in three starts against the Reds this season.
Gray hasn’t been too shabby either. The right-hander has recorded a quality start in six of his last seven starts and has pitched to a 1.97 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP over that span. Gray has also had success against the Cubbies this season, with a 3.63 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP in three starts against them.
Obviously, both of these teams can put up runs, but we’re riding the hot arms early on.
Pick: Under 4.5 (+100) First Five Innings
Yesterday’s picks: 0-2
Season to date: 126-123-5
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STREAKING AND SLUMPING STARTERS
STREAKING
Jeff Samardzija, San Francisco Giants (8-9, 3.70 ERA, $352): On a day with so many streaking starters it’s a bit of a surprise to see Samardzija here. But hey, he’s earned it. In seven starts since the start of July, the big right-hander has a 2.11 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP. And over his last three starts he has allowed just two earned runs combined.
Samardzija and the Giants are basically a Pick’em this afternoon at home against Vince Velasquez and the Phillies. The total sits at 8.5
SLUMPING
Kenta Maeda, Los Angeles Dodgers (7-8, 4.37, $-530): It seems like Maeda is the only Dodgers starter not streaking right now. The right-hander is 0-2 in his last three starts with a ballooned ERA of 10.64 and a 1.91 WHIP. No matter, the Dodgers are still -170 home favorites tonight against the Diamondbacks.
WEATHER WATCH
3 STRIKES
AN ENCORE PERFORMANCE?
Astros starter Aaron Sanchez makes since second being traded to Houston. And he got his Astros tenure off on the right foot, throwing six hitless innings in what turned out to be a combined no-hitter. So, what does Sanchez do for an encore? Saturday’s opponent is a familiar one for Sanchez. The former Jay as made four starts against the Orioles the past two seasons and has pitched to a 2.70 ERA. Unfortunately, there is no value on the Astros even on the runline at -180. If you want to get frisky, take the Astros at -3.5 at +120.
BUCCOS SINKING TO THE BOTTOM
Boy, it’s a bad time for the Buccos. The Pirates have dropped a crazy 22 of their last 26 ball games and now sit in the basement of the NL Central. Things don’t look like they’re going to get much better anytime soon.
Tonight, they send Joe Musgrove (4.69 ERA) to the bump as they visit Adam Wainwright (4.50 ERA) and St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals are 13-3 in Wainwrights last 16 home starts against Pirates, while the Pirates are 0-5 in Musgrove’s last five starts against the Cards. St. Louis is a -170 favorite for tonight’s matchup, but maybe take a look at them on the runline.
WILD WEST BATTLE
It has been a boon for total bettors when the Padres and Rockies have met this season with the Over going 8-2 in their last 10 meetings. And for the most part they are flying over the totals seeing a average of 16 combined runs per game over that span.
Tonight’s matchup sees Chi Chi Gonzalez (5.95 ERA) go up against Chris Paddack (3.19 ERA). Gonzalez makes just his fifth start of the season, while Paddack is in a slump, pitching to a 6.28 ERA in his last three starts. Paddack’s name has this total at 8.5, but we think that number is a little low.
SATURDAY'S TOP CONSENSUS
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