The Washington Nationals will make their first trip to Truist Park this season as they take on the 2021 World Series champion Atlanta Braves on Monday night.
The Nats stumbled out of the starting gate, dropping three of their first four games at home to the New York Mets while the Braves sandwiched their first two wins of 2022 with 6-3 losses to the Cincinnati Reds.
Who will emerge victorious in this one? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Nationals vs. Braves on Monday, April 11.
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Nationals vs Braves odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
Opening odds for this game were not released until Monday morning, as scheduled Nationals starter Anibal Sanchez (neck) was scratched for Triple-A call-up Josh Rogers.
The Braves were initially -164 favorites but have already seen some betting action, and have been lowered by at least a dime at most major sportsbooks. The total opened up at 9.5 runs and has remained at that line.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Nationals vs Braves predictions
Picks made on 4/11/2022 at 12:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Nationals vs Braves game info
• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
• Date: Monday, April 11, 2022
• First pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET
• TV: MSN2, Bally Sports Southeast
Nationals vs Braves betting preview
Starting pitchers
Josh Rogers (2021: 2-2, 3.28 ERA): The Nationals called up Josh Rogers from Triple-A to make a spot start in lieu of the injured Anibal Sanchez on Monday night. Rogers’ surface stats were respectable over 35 2/3 innings of work last season, but his 5.83 FIP suggests that he was the beneficiary of some good fortune. His 1.57 strikeout/walk ratio certainly won’t strike fear in the heart of the Atlanta offense. Rogers was allowed to throw as many as 103 pitches in a game late last season, but seeing as he’s not currently stretched out in full, bettors should expect him to have a shorter leash here.
Huascar Ynoa (2021: 4-6, 4.05 ERA): Huascar Ynoa was a fairly reliable arm for Atlanta in the first half of 2021, producing a 3.02 ERA over nine games (44 2-3 innings) before an injury derailed his campaign. His second half was one to forget, as he authored a 5.05 ERA over 46 1-3 innings. Even with that regression, his WHIP for the season was barely above 1.100, and his strikeout/walk ratio was a solid 4.0. Ynoa’s spring training stats (2.35 ERA over 7 2/3 innings) suggest he is in fine fettle to begin 2022.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Nationals: Anibal Sanchez (Out), Ehire Adrianza (Out), Carter Kieboom (Out), Will Harris (Out), Seth Romero (Out), Mason Thompson (Out).
Braves: Ronald Acuna Jr. (Out), Kirby Yates (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Braves are 20-6 in their last 26 games against NL East opponents. Find more MLB betting trends for Nationals vs. Braves.
Nationals vs Braves picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
Bettors should feel comfortable backing the Braves on the moneyline on Monday night.
Huascar Ynoa was dominant at times when pitching at home last season, producing a 2.88 ERA and .182 opponent batting average over a 50-inning sample size. He did some of his best work in 2021 against the Nationals, pitching to a 1.06 ERA and .158 opponent batting average in three starts (17 innings).
Ynoa takes on a Washington lineup that managed to score just four total runs against the Mets prior to their three-run “explosion” in the eighth inning on Sunday. As long as Ynoa keeps the ball away from Juan Soto (2-for-5 lifetime with two walks), he should get through five or six innings mostly unscathed.
Once he departs, Atlanta’s fairly reliable bullpen will take over. Excluding Kenley Jansen’s disastrous three-run Opening Day outing, the Braves have a reliever ERA of 2.35 through four games. Both Tyler Matzek and Darren O’Day should be available in this tilt after pitching just one time each in their team’s season-opening set.
Meanwhile, the Braves’ offense should see plenty of the Nats’ mediocre bullpen, as Rogers can’t be counted on to go past five innings. This unit was second-worst in the majors by ERA a year ago, and only the Arizona Diamondbacks’ relief corps has worked more innings than Washington’s have so far (23 innings to 18 2/3 innings).
Prediction: Braves moneyline (-175 at BetMGM)
Over/Under analysis
The Nationals’ offense may not get shut out, but this unit should be held in check by Atlanta’s pitching staff. However, the Braves’ bats rate a good chance to pad their stats against Washington and send this game Over the listed total.
Atlanta hasn’t missed Freddie Freeman at first base thus far, as Matt Olson has gathered eight hits (13 total bases) in his first 14 at-bats. That includes his solo home run in Sunday’s series finale against the Reds.
Third baseman Austin Riley is 5-for-13 in this early part of the campaign and sports an incredible .529 OBP. Not to be outdone is catcher Travis d’Arnaud, who has a team-leading four RBI despite playing in only three of his team’s first four games.
It would not be shocking to see Rogers get a quick hook, exposing the bullpen to more work, and potentially more damage.
Prediction: Over 9.5 runs (+100 at Caesars)
Best bet
The Nationals are not in a great spot on Monday night, and that’s why they’re sizable underdogs in this one. The Braves’ moneyline odds may not be all that palatable, but there appears to be value in backing them on the run line.
Atlanta’s offense is just as good as when it won the World Series, and Washington’s lineup can’t hold a candle to it as presently constructed. Ynoa goes as the Braves’ fifth starter in their first trip through the rotation, but he could quickly rise in the ranks if he lives up to what he did in the first half of 2021.
Rogers is not in an enviable situation and does not have a reliable bullpen behind him as Ynoa does. Also all three of Washington’s losses this year have been by multiple runs.
Pick: Braves -1.5 (+110 at BetMGM)
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