The Juan Soto vs. Fernando Tatis Jr. Show has been back and forth and exciting as hell so far. The Washington Nationals and San Diego Padres have traded wins through the first three games of this series with all three matchups going Over the total.
But today’s starters will look to put a stop to that as Max Scherzer toes the rubber against Yu Darvish. Will we see our first Under and can the Padres earn a split in the series?
Find out with our free MLB picks and predictions for Nationals vs. Padres on Thursday, July 8.
Nationals vs Padres game info
• Location: Petco Park, San Diego, CA
• Date: Thursday, July 8, 2021
• Time: 9:10 p.m. ET
• TV: NBCSP, Marquee Sports Network
Nationals vs Padres odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonSan Diego is out to a -155 favorite at 6:30 p.m. ET today at TwinSpires, after opening -140 and making a stop at -147 along the way. The Padres are landing 70 percent of bets and 72 percent of cash on the moneyline. The total is stable at 7, though it was shaded toward the Under to open and is now shaded toward the Over, with 59 percent of bets/63 percent of money on the Over.
Check out the full line movement for this gameNationals vs Padres betting preview
Starting pitchers
Max Scherzer (7-4, 2.10 ERA): Many thought the sticky stuff crackdown might affect Scherzer negatively. Nope. He’s just good. In 11 starts since the beginning of May, Scherzer has allowed more than one earned run in an outing just three times. In those three games, he allowed two.
Yu Darvish (7-3, 2.65 ERA): Darvish’s numbers have been almost as impressive as Scherzer’s with his 2.65 ERA and 0.95 WHIP but he's coming off a somewhat rough outing, giving up four runs on six hits against the Phillies. Luckily, Darvish returns to Petco Park where he has been dominant.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Nationals: Tanner Rainey RP (Out), Kyle Schwarber LF (Out).
Padres: Emilio Pagan RP (Questionable), Austin Nola C (Out), Javy Guerra RP (Out), Taylor Williams RP (Out), Matt Strahm RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 4-0 in Scherzer’s last four starts on the road. Find more MLB betting trends for Nationals vs. Padres.
Moneyline pick
The Nationals struck first in this series, taking Game 1 by a score of 7-5 but the Padres responded in Game 2 with a 7-4 win before the Nats slugged their way to a 15-5 victory last night. So, there have been plenty of runs scored in the series but things could be a little different in this one with two aces on the bump.
As noted, Scherzer is dealing right now. The right-hander is pitching to a 1.68 ERA, a 0.81 WHIP, is limiting opponents to a .167 batting average, and is striking out 12.5 batters per nine innings. Not bad.
While Darvish hasn’t been as good as that lately (not many have), he's definitely still awesome and at Petco Park this season he has a 2.12 ERA, an 0.87 WHIP while limiting opponents to a .196 batting average.
Both lineups cancel each other out the way they are hitting in this series, so with Scherzer pitching slightly better than Darvish at the moment the value is with the Nationals as underdogs once again.
PREDICTION: Nationals (+130)
Over/Under pick
It’s not going to take a rocket scientist to figure out which way we are leaning for this matchup. We’ve written at length about how both starters are in excellent form and should have success here. So, it’s interesting to see that the total was actually moved up from the opening 6.5. But that may just be a mirage to get better value on the Under 7.
We’ve talked about this 11-game stretch for Scherzer and his ability to limit runs has resulted in the Under going 9-2 over that span. While Darvish has cashed more Overs than Unders this season that has been due to his team giving him plenty of run support. That shouldn’t be the case against Scherzer.
Even though hitting has been the story for the first three games of this series, the old adage in baseball goes, “Great pitching beats great hitting.” We think that holds true in this matchup. Bet the Under.
PREDICTION: Under 7 (-110)
Nationals vs Padres betting card
- Nationals (+130)
- Under 7 (-110)
Picks made on 7/8/2021 at 12:39 p.m. ET
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