The Baltimore Orioles are in the thick of a tight AL East battle and they start a four-game series tonight against a Toronto Blue Jays team that entered 2024 hoping to be part of that divisional race.
With a booming offense, the Orioles are just a game behind the New York Yankees in the loss column and had won eight of their last nine contests before missing out on the chance to sweep the Tampa Bay Rays yesterday.
As expected, the Blue Jays are home underdogs here in the latest MLB odds. They’ve clawed back towards .500 thanks to a soft recent schedule, but the bigger tests start this week. I take a closer look at this divisional showdown with my free Orioles vs Blue Jays predictions and MLB picks.
Orioles vs Blue Jays prediction
My best bet
Orioles team total Over 3.5 runs (-132 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
With Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson leading the charge, this young Baltimore Orioles team has convincingly snatched the ‘team of the future’ tag that once belonged to the Toronto Blue Jays’ core.
The visitors are primed for another big offensive night here, and I don’t expect any kind of fear factor for this Baltimore line-up against Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman. Put simply: the Orioles have had success against Gausman.
Ryan Mountcastle, Cedric Mullins, and Austin Hays have combined to go 16-for-37 against the Toronto righty, while Anthony Santander has taken Gausman deep twice. In Gausman’s past two starts against Baltimore last year, the Orioles cantered to 7-0 and 6-1 victories.
Though the Toronto ace is 4-1 in his last five starts, that stretch has included matchups against the woeful Chicago White Sox and the so-so Detroit Tigers, and Washington Nationals. The Baltimore bats present very different challenges here.
I see the visitors’ offense showing up in the first game of this series, and I’m taking these odds for a potent Orioles offense to put at least four runs on the board. I’d equally explore slight plus odds for five or more runs for Baltimore – that’s been a winner in six of its last 10 contests.
The Orioles rank second in the American League in home runs (83) and OPS (.745), while averaging five runs per game. That feels like a recipe for fireworks against Gausman and a Toronto bullpen that used its big guns yesterday and is missing Jordan Romano.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Bo Bichette Over 0.5 RBIs (+145 at PROLINE+)
Despite hitting behind the in-form trio of Davis Schneider, Danny Jansen, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette had a rough series against the Pirates, going 0-for-13 and striking out six times.
But I’m not dwelling on that, especially given Bichette’s body of work in May (a .280 average and 14 RBIs). Bo had put together six hits, with five RBIs, in his four prior outings before the weekend set against Pittsburgh, and he’s posted a .266 average against right-handed pitchers this season.
The Blue Jays will need all the offense they can get tonight against an in-form Grayson Rodriguez, and I see Bichette doing his part by driving in a run.
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Orioles vs Blue Jays odds
Orioles vs Blue Jays live odds
Orioles vs Blue Jays opening odds
- Run line: Baltimore -1.5 (+150) | Toronto +1.5 (-185)
- Moneyline: Baltimore -119 | Toronto +110
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Orioles vs Blue Jays spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Orioles are 7-3 in the last 10 meetings between these teams and that helps to explain their status as road favorites here. Baltimore is also 8-2 in its past 10 outings and has won the opening game in four of its previous five series.
- Toronto wrapped up its May schedule with four straight wins, but I’m hesitant about overreacting to victories over the White Sox and Pirates. The hosts are 8.5 games behind the Orioles in the AL East standings.
- Though the Under has been a winner in eight of the past 10 meetings, I’m leaning towards the Over, which is 29-22 for Baltimore this season. An O/U line of 7.5 feels well within reach.
- I’ve already covered the visitors’ high potential for run production, and the Blue Jays have scored five or more runs in nine of their last 14 contests, with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. serving up 18 hits in that span.
Orioles vs Blue Jays trend
The Orioles have hit the 1st 5 Innings Team Total Over in 11 of their past 16 games. Find more MLB betting trends for Orioles vs. Blue Jays
Orioles vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Monday, 6-3-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MASN2, Sportsnet |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Grayson Rodriguez (5-2, 3.53 ERA) |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Kevin Gausman (4-3, 4.14 ERA) |
Orioles vs Blue Jays latest injuries
Orioles vs Blue Jays weather
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