The AL and NL MVP betting favorites will meet for the second straight night as Shohei Ohtani and the Los Angeles Angels host Fernando Tatis Jr. and the San Diego Padres in a Saturday nightcap at Angel Stadium.
Joe Musgrove tossed a complete-game shutout in a 5-0 San Diego win to open the series, a much-needed victory as a disastrous August has the Padres on the outside of the playoffs looking in.
San Diego opened as -135 road favorites and the total is set at 10.
Here are our free MLB picks and predictions for Padres vs. Angels on August 28.
Padres vs Angles game info
• Location: Angel Stadium, Anaheim, CA
• Date: Saturday, August 28, 2021
• Time: 9:07 p.m. ET
• TV: FS1
Padres vs Angels odds
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Padres vs Angels betting preview
Starting pitchers
Ryan Weathers (4-6, 5.27 ERA): The Padres will go with Ryan Weathers on Saturday night. The young left-hander and former Top-10 pick has been getting roughed up of late, having allowed 28 runs over his last 17 2-3 innings. He has surrendered nine home runs over this brutal stretch. There was a reason he wasn’t announced as the starter until late last night.
Jose Suarez (5-7, 4.06 ERA): Suarez has made eight starts this year after working out of the bullpen at the beginning of the season. The 23-year-old left-hander has a 5.59 ERA as a starter and has allowed at least four runs in three of his last six starts despite not pitching more than 5 2-3 innings. Suarez is a groundball pitcher (53 percent rate) and throws his curveball and changeup over 50 percent of the time.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Padres: Wil Myers OF (Questionable).
Angels: Justin Upton OF (Questionable), Mike Trout OF (Out), Anthony Rendon OF (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 6-0 in Suarez’s last six starts as an underdog. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Angels.
Moneyline pick
The Padres picked up a very important 5-0 win last night as San Diego came into the match having lost 12 of its previous 14 games. Sure, three of those defeats were against the Dodgers, but the Padres have struggled to beat even the worst of teams as Colorado swept them and Arizona took three of four. Don’t let last night’s solid win distract you from the overall poor play and underachieving this Padres team has been doing of late. They entered August with a 78 percent chance to make the playoffs and now sit at 21 percent.
If San Diego wants to pick up its first back-to-back set of wins since August 10, it's going to have to put up some runs as starting pitcher Ryan Weathers owns a 13.12 ERA over the last 28 days. He has allowed 28 runs over his last five starts — none of which have lasted longer than four innings.
Scoring runs may be easier said than done for the underachieving Padres who are slashing .227/.301/.369 this month, which equates to the third-lowest OPS in baseball. San Diego has scored more than five runs just once in its last 15 games. Even Tatis Jr., the NL MVP odds-on favorite, is swinging a cold stick and is hitting .138 over his last seven games.
Saurez is a decent enough pitcher to back in this underdog situation. His numbers aren’t great since moving to the rotation, but he keeps the ball on the ground and in the yard, and the pitch-to-contact pitcher gets to face the Padres at the perfect time.
Getting blanked doesn’t instill us with a ton of confidence in the L.A. bats, but the Angels do hit lefties well and sit in the Top 6 in baseball in wRC+ vs LHP and have the fourth-most home runs against lefties.
Shohei Ohtani hits LHP just as well as RHP and is launching a homer every 10.71 at-bats versus lefties. He should get a few good hacks against Weathers, who has been giving up long balls like bad advice from a coworker.
PREDICTION: Los Angeles (+110)
Over/Under pick
The Padres have been a profitable Over team this season but their recent play has them 2-10-1 O/U across their last 13 games as the offense struggles to put up runs. San Diego needed a pair of errors last night to score five runs — something it hadn’t done in six straight games.
The Angels’ offense pulled a no-show last night, managing just three hits in Musgrove's complete game. They also managed just one run in their Thursday game against the Orioles and have scored one or fewer runs in five of their last seven contests. This is an ice-cold offense that is averaging 1.36 runs per game over its last 11 losses going back to August 10.
The month of August has not been kind to either team. San Diego sits 26th in OPS at .670 while the Angels have been even worse, coming in at last place with an OPS of .634. Neither team is hitting higher than .227 this month. If you ever wanted to test the poor-pitching versus poor-hitting theory, today is the day.
We feel the weak pitching has already been incorporated in the total and price so there are no price breaks there. Angel Stadium has a neutral total-bases park effect, per Ballparkpal. If we can get through four innings with five or fewer runs, we’d be happy heading into the later innings.
PREDICTION: Under 10 (-110)
Padres vs Angels betting card
- Los Angeles (+110)
- Under 10 (-110)
Picks made on 8/28/2021 at 8:51 a.m. ET
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