The San Diego Padres just mashed their way through the nation's capital and will continue their tour through the NL East when they open a three-game set with the Atlanta Braves tonight.
This game was originally set for Monday but was postponed due to rain. San Diego beat up any and every pitcher the Nationals threw at them over the weekend and are big MLB betting road favorites tonight as Atlanta trots out rookie Kyle Muller... and the Padres will see their ace return to the mound following a short IL stint.
Here are our best free MLB picks and predictions for Padres vs. Braves on Tuesday, July 20, with first pitch set for 7:20 p.m. ET.
Padres vs Braves game info
• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
• Date: Tuesday, July 20, 2021
• Time: 7:20 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports South, Bally Sports San Diego
Padres vs Braves odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare MLB odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
MLB sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonTwinSpires pegged the Padres -160 to open, spent time at -168 on the way to -177 and is at -175 as of 4:45 p.m. ET today. San Diego is taking a modest majority of moneyline tickets, at 54 percent, but that's translating to 75 percent of moneyline dollars. The total is fairly stable at 9, with ticket count and money just shy of 2/1 on the Under.
Check out the full line movement for this gamePadres vs Braves betting preview
Starting pitchers
Yu Darvish (7-3, 3.09 ERA): Darvish hit the 10-day IL with left hip inflammation after giving up 4 earned runs in six innings against the Phillies, followed by a three-inning, six earned run disaster his last time out against Washington. The 34-year-old ace is expected to be activated off the IL and start tonight and, despite his recent struggles, still excels at avoiding giving up hard contact — and opponents are hitting .175 or worse off four of Darvish's five primary pitches (and just .237 off the other).
Kyle Muller (1-2, 3.45 ERA): The 23-year-old rookie has been solid through three career MLB starts, holding the Mets and Reds to one combined run across nine innings before falling one out short of a quality start against Miami on July 3. The southpaw has also logged 16 strikeouts in his last two outings (10 2-3 IP), mostly using a fastball, slider, and curveball and giving up a .167 opponent batting average overall.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Padres: Austin Nola C (Out), Keone Kela RP (Out).
Braves: Ronald Acuna Jr. OF (Out), Marcell Ozuna OF (Out), Travis d'Arnaud C (Out), Alex Jackson C (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 8-0 in the Padres' last eight games against the NL East. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Braves.
Runline pick
The Slam Diego touring show is on full display, as the Padres are coming off a three-game series in Washington where they scored a whopping 41 runs. Yes, that number is massively inflated by a 24-run outburst on Friday, but the fact remains that this is an offense that is Top 10 in the Majors in runs per game, hits, home runs, and on-base percentage — plus they easily lead the MLB in steals.
San Diego is led by superstar Fernando Tatis Jr., who already has 28 HR and 22 SB and could flirt with a 40/40 season, but what makes the Friars offense so scary is the depth of the lineup with Manny Machado, Jake Cronenworth, Tommy Pham, and Eric Hosmer all raking in July.
Muller has been impressive in his first cup of coffee in the Bigs, but his opponents so far have been mediocre (or worse) offenses — this will be his first test against a truly elite slugging club and considering San Diego just beat up stud Max Scherzer (for the second straight outing), I wouldn't bet on Muller shutting them down tonight.
Now, Atlanta's offense has continued to produce, as it has scored 24 runs in four games since star Ronald Acuna Jr. suffered a season-ending injury. Freddie Freeman and Joc Pederson (recently acquired to help fill the Acuna void) are a combined 11 for 25 (.440) with three home runs and eight RBIs over that stretch, but they'll be facing San Diego's ace Yu Darvish tonight, who is returning from the IL and can dominate any lineup on a given night.
Atlanta has also lost three of its last four games, as it coughed up exactly seven runs in each loss. The Padres are not the type of offense where you can expect your pitching to get back on track, and in facing San Diego's top arm, it's hard not to fade the home Braves by a couple of runs in this matchup.
PREDICTION: San Diego -1.5 (+100)
Over/Under pick
Yes, facing Darvish is a tough task, but he is coming off the IL with hip inflammation, following arguably his two worst starts of the season. We'd like to think that the extra rest will help Darvish get back to his usual ace self but we wouldn't be surprised if a hot Atlanta lineup scratches out a few runs against a guy who hasn't pitched in nearly two weeks.
On the other side, we mentioned that Muller has been solid but hasn't faced an offense the caliber of San Diego... and the young lefty is in for a rude awakening. The Padres are blasting the cover off the ball right now and Muller is looking like the next item on San Diego's offensive menu.
We like Atlanta to score a little, and San Diego to score a lot. Add it together and it seems like a good bet to go Over tonight's run total.
PREDICTION: Over 9 (+100)
Padres vs Braves betting card
- San Diego -1.5 (+100)
- Over 9 (+110)
Picks made on 7/20/2021 at 8:19 a.m. ET
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