It’s a battle of southpaws Sunday as MacKenzie Gore and Clayton Kershaw close out the four-game series between the San Diego Padres and the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Los Angeles has won the first three games and is looking for a Sunday sweep. San Diego came into the series 1.5 games out of first, but are now at 4.5 behind in the National League West.
Can the rookie Gore get his team back in the division race or is L.A. going to take a commanding lead by sweeping the series? Find out in our free MLB betting picks and predictions for Padres vs. Dodgers on July 3.
Padres vs Dodgers odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Dodgers are once again favorites, opening at -179 and going up as high as -189. The Padres began at +155 and have jumped to +160 at several sportsbooks. The total started at 7.5 and has stayed there with the Over -105 and the Under -115.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Padres vs Dodgers predictions
Picks made on 7/3/2022 at 12:05 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Padres vs Dodgers game info
• Location: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA
• Date: Sunday, July 3, 2022
• First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
• TV: Bally Sports, SNLA
Padres vs Dodgers betting preview
Starting pitchers
Mackenzie Gore (4-3, 3.34 ERA): Gore will hopefully benefit from rest. The rookie left-hander’s last start was June 24 against the Philadelphia Phillies. The 23-year-old pitched five innings, blanking the Phillies on three hits. He had two rough outings against the Colorado Rockies before that. In those two games, he went a total of 6 1-3 innings, giving up 14 runs on 14 hits, including three home runs. His ERA for the season is 3.34, but his ERA for June is 7.27.
Clayton Kershaw (5-2, 2.94 ERA): Since returning from the IL during the second week of June, Kershaw has struggled in the four games since his return. He has two losses during that time. One was to San Francisco, where he gave up two runs on three hits, including a home run. The other loss was his last start in Colorado against the Rockies. Kershaw only went four innings, giving up six runs on nine hits and two home runs. The one win he did have was against the lowly Cincinnati Reds.
Weather
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Betting trend to know
The Padres are 10-2 in their last 12 road games against a left-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Dodgers
Padres vs Dodgers picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
Facing Los Angeles Dodgers' pitcher Clayton Kershaw used to be a daunting task, but an injury has slowed down his progress this season. The 34-year-old lefty came back from a 15-day stint on the IL on June 6 because of inflammation in his hip joint.
Kershaw’s return has not been up to his usual standards. He has started four games since his return and gone 1-2 with a no decision. He has pitched a total of 19 innings and allowed 10 runs on 24 hits, including three home runs.
The latest injury interrupted the start of another dominant year for Kershaw. Before the injury, he pitched in five games, allowing a total of six runs on 14 hits. In his first start of the season, he carried a no-hitter into the eighth inning before Manager Dave Roberts pulled him.
That Kershaw, I believe, is a ways from returning. What we have now is a pitcher trying to regain his form and struggling against teams over .500.
That doesn’t bode well in Sunday’s start against the 46-34 Padres. San Diego has scored just four runs in the three losses to the Dodgers, but that’s going to change against Kershaw. The Padres have too many weapons, even without Fernando Tatis Jr., who is out of action with a wrist injury.
San Diego is 16th in batting average, but 10th in runs and RBI and 13th in hits. The team is due for a break-out game and that will be at the expense of Kershaw.
Besides, the team is 11-4 in their last 14 against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15 and 13-5 in their last 18 games vs. a left-handed starter
Prediction: Padres moneyline (+160 at FanDuel)
Over/Under analysis
The first three games have been lopsided victories for the Dodgers, outscoring the Padres 15-4.
However, I think Sunday will be a reversal of that, though I don’t think enough runs will be scored to go Over the total of 7.5.
The trends certainly back that up. The Under is 5-1 for the Dodgers in their last six against a left-hander starter. The Under has also hit in five of their last eight home games and eight of their last 11 against teams in the NL West.
The Padres have hit the Under in five of their last six games against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15. The Under is also 5-1 for the Padres in their last six road games.
Gore’s 3.34 ERA is higher than Kershaw’s 2.94 but if both pitchers stay around that mark they will clear the Under.
The concern is both of the offenses. Los Angeles is second in the majors in runs, averaging 5.05 a game. San Diego is 10th in runs, averaging 4.54 a game.
I am still going to bank on the pitching keeping this game low.
Prediction: Under 7.5 (-115 at Caesars)
Best bet
MacKenzie Gore has struck out five or more batters eight times this season. In two of those games, he fanned 10 batters.
He has cooled off a bit, striking out four, one, and three batters in his last three games respectively, but L.A. could help him reach the Over on Sunday
The Dodgers are 15th in the league in strikeouts, and average 8.5 a game. In their last two games against the Padres, they have struck out 17 and 10 times.
Look for Gore to get back on track in strikeouts against Los Angeles and easily hit the Over on his strikeouts prop.
MacKenzie Gore player prop: Over 4.5 strikeouts (-140 at DraftKings)
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