The second game of a series between the San Diego Padres (25-14) and San Francisco Giants (22-16) goes down Saturday at Oracle Park.
The NL West is shaping up to have three playoff-caliber teams, as both the Padres and Giants are chasing the Los Angeles Dodgers in the standings.
Carlos Rodon gets the nod for the Giants, while Joe Musgrove is on the bump for the Padres, who took Game 1 in an 8-7 win.
Check out our MLB picks and predictions for the San Diego Padres and San Francisco Giants on Saturday, May 21.
Padres vs Giants odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Giants have taken significant steam in the betting market. After opening Giants -136, the line has shot up to between -148 and -160 at current. The total opened at 7 across all books and hasn’t budged.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Padres vs Giants predictions
Picks made on 5/21/2022 at 9:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Padres vs Giants game info
• Location: Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA
• Date: Saturday, May 21, 2022
• First pitch: 4:05 p.m. ET
• TV: Fox Sports 1
Padres vs Giants betting preview
Starting pitchers
Joe Musgrove (4-0, 2.20 ERA): For the first few years of his career, Musgrove was a capable starter whose underlying peripherals indicated he may have been even better than his performance on the mound had dictated. Those peripherals have finally caught up to Musgrove’s performance as he’s found a home in San Diego and developed into one of the game’s better pitchers. He accumulated an 11-9 record and 3.18 ERA a year ago while striking out 10 batters per 9 innings and being stingy with the free passes (2.68 BB/9 ratio). His ERA, xERA, FIP, and xFIP are all below 3.00 this season.
Carlos Rodon (4-2, 3.49 ERA): I previewed the last game Rodon pitched in when he had a stellar 1.80 ERA heading into a matchup with the St. Louis Cardinals on Sunday Night Baseball. Things didn’t go according to plan in that game, as he allowed eight earned in only 3 2-3 innings of work, ballooning his ERA all the way up to 3.49 on the season. It was an outlier performance, as he had yet to allow more than two earned runs in any of his starts before this season and has been one of the game’s most deadly left-handers dating back to the start of 2021. I’m not in the habit of making excuses, but it’s worth pointing out that there have been a few reports about the belief that MLB is bringing in juiced balls to have more runs scored on Sunday Night Baseball. I’m not saying I’m sold on this report, but some teams are convinced that this is the case and it would partially explain Rodon’s last outing.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Padres: Fernando Tatis Jr. SS (Out), Matt Beaty LF (Out), Pierce Johnson RP (Out), Austin Adams RP (Out), Drew Pomeranz RP (Out), Michel Baez RP (Out).
Giants: LaMonte Wade Jr. LF (Out), Steven Duggar CF (Out), Jake McGee RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Padres are 5-0 in their last five games vs. left-handed starters. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Giants
Padres vs Giants picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The Giants have thrived offensively by drawing walks and hitting for a high average. They just seem to know how to get on base. Gabe Kapler’s squad ranks third in OBP (.330) on the season. This approach has been a good one, as they rank second in runs scored per game (5.23) in the majors. The lineup has been performing well of late, too, ranking fifth in wOBA and seventh in wRC+ since the start of May.
The Padres’ lineup isn’t quite as lethal as their NL West counterparts. They rank 11th in runs per game (4.45), 22nd in batting average (.229), and 21st in OPS (.666). The void that Fernando Tatis Jr. has left in this lineup is a substantial one.
San Diego has gone ice cold offensively, ranking 28th in wOBA and 27th in wRC+ since the calendar flipped to May. However, they've hit lefties well, ranking 10th in batting average while smacking the second-most home runs (16) against southpaws.
Rodon has been one of the game’s best pitchers since the start of 2021. I believe his woeful performance against the Cardinals on Sunday Night Baseball was more of an outlier than anything, but it does still cause some doubt to linger in the back of my mind as I’m handicapping this matchup. The Padres do hit left-handed pitching well, which should mitigate the fact that their lineup has been ice cold.
This seems like a close game where both teams have a good starting pitcher on the mound. I agree the Giants should be favored here at home, but this line feels a tad wide.
Prediction: Padres moneyline (+140 at Caesars)
Over/Under analysis
With two quality starting pitchers like this on the mound, I’m a little surprised this total hasn’t moved down to 6.5. The current form of Rodon and the production of the Giants lineup is likely keeping this one at 7.
I believe that creates some value. Rodon was virtually unhittable to begin the season and while the Padres hit lefties well, they certainly aren’t a lineup to strike fear into an opposing pitcher’s heart.
Musgrove’s peripherals are all top-notch, as per usual. He finds a way to limit damage start after start and is a very complete pitcher at this point in his career.
While neither bullpen is terrific, I wouldn't categorize either as unreliable, either. The Padres have a 3.78 ERA in relief, while the Giants have a bullpen 3.82 ERA.
We’ll take the Under.
Prediction: Under 7 (-115 at FanDuel)
Best bet
We’re targeting this inflated moneyline price as our best bet.
These teams are relatively even. While the Giants are playing at home, enough factors are working in the Padres’ favor that I think the line has value.
They hit lefties well, Rodon is coming off his worst start in what seems like forever, Musgrove is as reliable as they come, and overall are an undervalued team after underperforming a season ago.
San Diego is 5-0 in its last five games against left-handed starters. Back that trend to continue on Saturday.
Pick: Padres moneyline (+140 at Caesars)
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