It’s early, but both the San Diego Padres (4-6) and San Francisco Giants (3-5) are hunting for wins after falling into a hole in the NL West standings.
That makes this three-game weekend series a pivotal one for both franchises. The first game was hard-fought and ended with Thairo Estrada hitting a walk-off double for the Giants.
According to the MLB odds, this one is a pick ‘em while the total is set at 8.
I’m eyeing San Francisco starter Keaton Winn’s props for this NL West showdown. Read on for my best bet and full MLB picks and predictions for Padres vs. Giants on Saturday, April 6.
Padres vs Giants odds
Padres vs Giants predictions
Saturday’s game offers a pitching matchup between the San Diego Padres' Michael King and the San Francisco Giants' Keaton Winn. I’m going to take a closer look at San Francisco’s young right-hander for my best bet.
The Giants have high hopes for Winn, who primarily wins via a nasty splitter that helps him rank 13th in Stuff+ among starting pitchers. That’s over a small sample size this year, of course, but he would’ve been borderline Top 5 in 2023 if he had enough innings to qualify.
The story going into this season is that he needed to develop a reliable third pitch to complement his 96 mph four-seamer and his terrific splitter. It looks like he may be relying on his slider to be that pitch — after throwing it just 3.5% of the time last year, that usage bumped all the way up to 22.5% in his first start of 2024.
There’s a lot to like about his first start. His average fastball velocity was up from 96 mph a year ago to 96.8 mph while his splitter was up from 88.8 mph to 89.7 mph. If his slider is going to remain an effective pitch that he trusts, there’s every reason to expect a breakout season from the Iowa Western CC product.
The 6-foot-4 hurler posted a healthy 13.8% SwStr% across 42 1/3 innings a year ago — his first at the MLB level — and it was at 13.5% after his first start. He possesses serious swing-and-miss stuff and that’s backed up by both the advanced numbers and the eye test.
The books have the Keaton Winn odds on his strikeout prop at 4.5 with juicy plus money on the Over. You can probably already tell where I’m headed with this one as I fancy the Over as my best bet. Winn has surpassed this number in each of his last four starts while averaging 6.3 punch outs.
My best bet: Keaton Winn Over 4.5 strikeouts (+130 +173 at BetMGM) 33% boost available
Padres vs Giants same-game parlay
Keaton Winn 4+ strikeouts
Michael Conforto 2+ total bases
Giants moneyline
Michael Conforto has been raking at the plate to start the year, sporting a .419 BA while homering three times to go with 10 RBIs. He’s hit for multiple bases five times already this season and his bat is as hot as any in the MLB, so why not ride the wave? What a relief it’s been to San Francisco’s front office after the veteran outfielder disappointed in his debut season in the Bay.
Lastly, I find it hard not to fade King until he improves his abominable 26.3% walk rate. He’s mostly been a reliever in his career and has not proven that he can be counted on in the rotation. I’ll make him prove me wrong.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Padres vs Giants moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- This is the sixth meeting between these teams in 2024. San Francisco is 3-2 across the first five matchups.
- San Francisco is 7-1 O/U this year.
- The weather forecast calls for winds of 5.8 to 9.2 mph blowing out to center field.
Trend to know
Keaton Winn has thrown for more than 4.5 strikeouts in four straight starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Giants
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Padres vs Giants game info
| Location: | Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, April 6, 2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | SDPA, NBCSBA |
Starting pitchers
Michael King (1-0, 6.14 ERA): King has been a bit up and down in 2024, walking 10 batters across his first 7 1/3 innings. He’s managed to strike out 11 batters in that same span, however, and has a 1-0 record despite facing a tough Dodgers lineup and these very same Giants.
Keaton Winn (0-1, 5.40 ERA): Winn is a youngster who has a fantastic splitter that I’d qualify as “must-see TV”. That is, if you’re into baseball and pitching in particular, give him a look and try not to be mesmerized by his deadly splitter. He surrendered three earned runs on four hits and a walk while striking out six against the Dodgers in his only start.
