Padres vs Mets Predictions, Picks, Odds: Xander Makes His Mark

The San Diego Padres and New York Mets will meet in Queens tonight for the second of a three-game series. 

Last night, the Mets blanked the Padres by a final score of 5-0. The result put both teams at 6-5 for the season, meaning one will drop to .500 after tonight.

Although the season is still young, the Mets have hit a good stretch of baseball after a rough opening. New York has won three of its last four games, with all three wins coming by three or more runs. On the other hand, the Padres had won three straight before the loss last night.

What's the best bet for this star-studded matchup? Find out in our MLB picks and predictions for Padres vs. Mets below. 

Padres vs Mets odds

Padres vs Mets predictions

After a career-best season in virtually everything a season ago, we'll see at least some regression from David Peterson this year.

While his expected ERA was directly in line with the actual ERA, his high barrel rate indicates that things could have been worse. We saw some of that regression in his second start against the Brewers. Peterson was hit hard in that start, and Milwaukee had two of the three hardest-hit balls in the game. 

That said, the pitching matchup is closer than the MLB odds suggest and I'm not interested in taking a side here. Instead, I'll hit the prop market to attack a player that's been extremely hot over the last week or so. 

As we mentioned previously, Xander Bogaerts is rolling. He's had a hit in 10 of his last 11 games and has hit .250 in 13 career games against the New York Mets. While he did cool off in the series against the Braves, Bogaerts went Over 1.5 total bases in five of his six games before that series. We like him to get back to that in this matchup today.

Peterson mostly throws a mix of fastballs and sliders, and that's something that Bogarets should be looking forward to. 

Let's look at the fastball for starters: Bogaerts hasn't hit them well this season, which is odd for a player who has hit them well historically. However, it's reasonable to assume this is just a blip, as his underlying and expected statistics have been good against them. I think that makes him a better bet today – knowing that a breakout against this pitch type is coming.

Now for the slider, Bogaerts has raked against the slider historically and last season was no exception. He posted a +6 run value against that particular pitch which was the highest for any Boston hitter. Most notably? A slugging percentage of .421. Bogaerts hit these pitches well, and he hits them hard. 

We're banking on him getting some offspeed pitches in his plate appearances against Peterson and, if he needs it, hitting a Mets bullpen that is still a little soft after some injuries this season.

My best bet: Xander Bogaerts Over 1.5 total bases (+145)

Padres vs Mets moneyline analysis

The Mets are on the right side here, but not enough to lay the juice hovering from -145 to -150, depending on the book. They win the game more often than not, but the value is elsewhere. 

While New York still holds a pitching edge, it's definitely closer than the market would indicate for some of the reasons I outlined above. If I was going to play anything, I would grab a small amount on the San Diego Padres if the price gets about +135.

The value is too much to pass up, given that Peterson could be developing a barrel rate problem and the Padres have plenty of sluggers in their lineup. Unfortunately, I'm not seeing that price for now, so this game is a total stay-away from a side perspective. 

Last night's loss to the Mets was the Padres' first loss in its previous seven games against an opponent with a winning record. San Diego tends to raise its game against the better teams on its schedule, and New York is one of those. Given that the Mets held the Padres scoreless last night, the trends suggest backing San Diego last night. 

Padres vs Mets Over/Under analysis

I lean to the Over here as my projections have this game going Over about 60% of the time. However, the conditions in Citi Field tonight could be better for runs. Expect a cold night with winds blowing to right field. According to BallParkPal.com, that has produced an average reduction of runs by 29%. Because of that, I'll pass on any side here.

The Over has hit at a decent clip when the Padres have faced a left-handed starter. Their games have gone Over in nine of the last 11 games when they've seen one on the mound. For the Mets, it's cashed in six of the last seven against left-handed starters. With two lefties on the mound tonight, the trends point in one direction. 

Padres vs Mets game info

Padres vs Mets betting preview

Starting pitchers

Ryan Weathers (0-0, 3.60 ERA): Although he didn't get a result, Weathers' first start of the season was a solid one. The lefty went five innings and gave up just two earned runs to the Diamondbacks. Weathers won't be a mainstay in the Padres rotation once starting pitcher Joe Musgrove returns from injury, but while he's in this role, he can offer stability. Starts like what you saw against the D-backs is what you'd hope for. In that game, he could limit his stress by throwing 60% of pitches for strikes while avoiding a ton of hard contact.

David Peterson (0-1, 6.00 ERA): Peterson is one of the rare pitchers in baseball to be already making his third start. His first one was nice when he went five innings and gave up just one earned run to the Marlins. However, that was followed by a rough one, going just four innings and allowing six earned runs and a homer to the Brewers. Nevertheless, Peterson is coming off the best season of his career when he posted lows in ERA, xBA, and xWOBA

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The Padres are 5-1 in their last six games against a team with a winning record. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Mets

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