The San Diego Padres will try to sweep the New York Mets out of the Wild Card round when they meet once again at Citi Field on Saturday night.
The Padres went deep four times on Friday against Max Scherzer, who allowed seven runs over 4 2-3 innings before exiting to a chorus of boos in Game 1. Can San Diego do the same against Mets ace Jacob deGrom? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Padres vs Mets on Saturday, October 8.
Padres vs Mets best odds
Padres vs Mets picks and predictions
NL RBI leader Pete Alonso was one of the many culprits in an uninspired Game 1 for the Mets offense on Friday night, as he went just 1-for-4 with two strikeouts. However, it’s difficult to believe that the “Polar Bear” will go away quietly in Game 2 on Saturday night.
Alonso got hot down the stretch for the Mets, gathering 11 hits in his final 28 at-bats of the regular season, good for a .393 batting average. He also hit two bombs and drove in eight RBI in that span, but that was confined to two games played on Sept. 25 and 27. In six tilts since then, Alonso has failed to find both the home run and RBI categories.
The Tampa native has no one but himself to blame for a lack of dingers in that span, but the RBI woes can be partially attributed to a team-wide funk that saw the Mets go 16-13 after Sept. 3 despite playing the easiest schedule in the majors by opponent win percentage.
Bettors should not be counting on Brandon Nimmo or Francisco Lindor to get on base ahead of Alonso to give him an RBI chance. Nimmo’s home OBP is just .321, compared to .406 on the road, while Lindor brings some poor lifetime numbers against San Diego starter Blake Snell into this one (3-for-25). Snell has also had a knack for keeping the ball in the park this year, serving up only six taters since the All-Star break (78 innings).
However, an underrated part of Alonso’s game is his disciplined eye at the plate. Though he has only nine homers off lefties over 148 at-bats this year (compared to 31 off righties in 451 at-bats) Alonso has a higher OBP against southpaws at .364, versus .346 off orthodox pitchers.
If he can draw a walk or slap a single, “Polar Bear” can allow Mets’ lefty mashers Starling Marte and Eduardo Escobar to drive him in. There’s also a puncher’s chance that Alonso — who is 3-for-9 lifetime with a dinger off Snell — crushes a homer anyway. This is a great price on this prop, which would be playable down to +130.
My best bet: Pete Alonso Over 0.5 runs scored (+150)
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Padres vs Mets Wild Card odds
| Teams | Odds to win series |
|---|---|
 San Diego Padres |
-215 |
 New York Mets |
+175 |
Padres vs Mets moneyline analysis
Jacob deGrom has clearly been off for the Mets of late, authoring a 6.00 ERA over his last four starts, while serving up six home runs. However, if his blister issue is truly behind him, as New York manager Buck Showalter has claimed, then the Mets are a smart wager with their backs to the wall at home on Saturday night.
deGrom has still produced a 39-4 strikeout/walk ratio over his last four outings while lasting 21 innings, so it’s not as though he’s being ambushed early and letting his bullpen out to dry. His opponent OPS the first and second time through (.484 and .386, respectively) this year are good, but his .959 opponent OPS the third time through is not.
Showalter will likely have deGrom replaced at the first sign of trouble in this win-or-go-home spot, and he should be unafraid to turn to a rested Edwin Diaz for multiple innings if necessary. His controversial decision to keep closer Zack Britton in the bullpen while his Orioles lost the 2016 AL Wild Card Game is likely at the front of his mind.
The Amazins should be counted on to supply run support for their pitchers despite being held to just one tally on Friday. This lineup averaged 5.56 runs per game over its final 18 tilts of the regular season.
Trend bettors should note that the Mets are 11-4 in their last 15 home games against teams with winning records, and 43-17 in their last 60 games following a loss. Despite Friday’s victory, the Padres are only 4-10 in their last 14 playoff games, including a 2-5 mark in their last seven postseason road games.
Padres vs Mets Over/Under analysis
It’s exceedingly difficult to endorse the Under when the line is a microscopic 5.5. The trends also suggest that this total is too low.
Blake Snell has had a solid second-half renaissance, but the 2018 Cy Young winner’s best days appear to be behind him. deGrom has not been as sharp in 2022 as he has in years past. These starters have almost no margin for error for Under players.
The bullpens in question have not been lockdown types either. The Mets ranked 12th by ERA over the last two weeks of the season (3.11), while the Padres checked in at 19th (3.81).
The Over has cashed in six straight Mets games with the total set at 6.5 or lower, and is 5-2 in the Padres’ last seven road games in the same situation. New York has exceeded the total in 10 of its last 11 games against left-handed starters, and the Over is 19-7 in the Mets’ last 26 games overall. The Over is also 6-2 in San Diego’s last eight playoff contests.
Padres vs Mets trend to know
The Over is 6-2 in the Mets’ last eight games against teams with winning records. Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Mets
Padres vs Mets game info
| Location: | Citi Field, Flushing, NY |
| Date: | Saturday, October 8, 2022 |
| First pitch: | 7:37 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Starting pitchers
Blake Snell (8-10, 3.38 ERA): Snell was arguably the Padres’ best starter in the second half of the year, authoring a 2.10 ERA over 14 starts following the All-Star break. He struck out 105 batters over that 78-inning sample. Opponents are hitting just .198 off Snell in 47 innings of work on the road in 2022.
Jacob deGrom (5-4, 3.08 ERA): deGrom’s credentials are almost without equal in the MLB, but Mets fans have to be asking “what have you done for me lately?” The two-time Cy Young winner is 0-3 in his last four starts with a 6.00 ERA. He’s also reportedly battling a blister issue.
Padres vs Mets latest injuries
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Padres vs Mets weather
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