The Toronto Blue Jays may be looking ahead to 2025, but Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the young core will get a good test when the Philadelphia Phillies come to town for a mini two-game set this week.
The pitching matchup between rookie Tyler Phillips and veteran Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has my Phillies vs. Blue Jays predictions focused squarely on the total, specifically the Over.
My MLB picks break down this interleague matchup on Tuesday, September 3 below.
Phillies vs Blue Jays prediction
My best bet
Over 8.5 (-125 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
As the Toronto Blue Jays have leaned into using their younger players in the second half, they have undoubtedly been to watch.
But with youth comes inexperience and learning curves and the Jays are coming off a series loss to the Minnesota Twins. They had a chance to take the rubber match, too, before the Twins' late-inning comeback on Sunday.
Things only get tougher this week as the Jays host one of the best teams in baseball, the Philadelphia Phillies. But despite the discrepancy in their respective records, the Blue Jays are favored today.
That’s because the pitching matchup pits veteran Chris Bassitt against rookie Tyler Phillips.
August was a prime example of how Bassitt's season has been a rollercoaster ride. The right-hander put up great performances against the Red Sox and Orioles, but got tagged by the A’s and Angels.
Overall, the 35-year-old is pitching to a 4.30 expected ERA while surrendering a .253 opponent expected batting average. Those both rank below league average and now he must navigate one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball. Philly, while in a bit of a rough patch, ranks seventh in OPS and 10th in wRC+.
On the other side, Phillips had a 1.80 ERA through his first four appearances, culminating in a complete-game shutout of the Cleveland Guardians on July 27.
But it seems major-league teams have started to figure out the 26-year-old right-hander because he's been tagged for 17 runs on 20 hits in just 11 innings of work over his last three starts. And while you may not realize it, Toronto ranks ninth in OPS and seventh in wRC+ since the All-Star break.
Mix in a suspect Blue Jays bullpen and this game has all the ingredients necessary to cook up an Over on the modest total of 8.5.
Blue Jays star player prop
My best bet
Vladimir Gurrerro Jr. Over 0.5 RBI (+150 at PROLINE+)
My analysis
Since I’m betting the Blue Jays offense produces some runs, where else would we start other than with Vladimir Guerrero Jr.?
The Blue Jays first baseman has re-established himself as one of the best hitters in baseball and enters this matchup hitting .324 with a .952 OPS, 27 home runs, and 89 RBI after finishing August with a flourish.
Vladdy enters September tearing the cover off the ball. He’s got a .452 batting average, with a 1.192 OPS, four doubles, a dinger, and six RBI over his last eight games. He also has six multi-hit games over that stretch, but I’m backing him to drive in another run tonight.
Guerrero has driven in at least one run in four of the past eight games and at these odds, he looks like a great bet to hit the Over 0.5 RBI tonight. In fact, our Covers Prop Projections have this listed as a five-star play.
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Phillies vs Blue Jays odds
Phillies vs Blue Jays live odds
Phillies vs Blue Jays opening odds
- Moneyline: Philadelphia +100 | Toronto -120
- Run line: Philadelphia +1.5 (-205) | Toronto -1.5 (+175)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-125) | Under 8.5 (+100)
Phillies vs Blue Jays moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Blue Jays opened as -120 home favorites but early bettors are seeing some value in the Phillies as road underdogs with the line now in the Toronto -115 range.
- Bassitt is the better pitcher, but the Phillies are the much better team, and Bassitt will eventually hand the ball to a Blue Jays bullpen with MLB's third-worst ERA.
- The total hit the board at 8.5 and that's where it remains as of early Tuesday afternoon, but that number is juiced to the Over.
- The Blue Jays have been a solid Over bet in the second half of the season thanks to an improved offense and a bullpen that loves to blow games.
Phillies vs Blue Jays trend
The Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 43 games at home for +17.00 Units and a 36% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Blue Jays.
Phillies vs Blue Jays game info
| Location: | Rogers Centre, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Tuesday, 9-3-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet, NBCS-Philadelphia |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Tyler Phillips (4-1, 5.50 ERA) |
| Blue Jays starting pitcher: | Chris Bassitt (9-13, 4.27 ERA) |
Phillies vs Blue Jays latest injuries
Phillies vs Blue Jays weather
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