Any true college basketball fan will be staying up late tonight to watch one of the West Coast’s best rivalries get renewed as the Gonzaga Bulldogs face the Saint Mary’s Gaels in Moraga.
The Gaels hold a two-game lead in the conference standings and have an unblemished record, but the Bulldogs aren’t going down without a fight.
Find out why my Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary's predictions and college basketball picks expect the Bulldogs to prevail on Saturday, February 1.
Gonzaga vs Saint Mary’s prediction
My best bet
Gonzaga -1.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Saint Mary’s Gaels are no joke. They have yet to lose in WCC play, are 19-3 overall, and rank within the Top 35 in both offensive and defensive adjusted efficiency. Simply put, they’re one of the best mid-majors in the country.
That said, I’m still going the other way and am backing the Gonzaga Bulldogs in this West Coast rivalry. Allow me to explain.
Gonzaga has the superior firepower, being one of only two teams in the nation (along with Auburn) with six players averaging double figures in scoring — featuring Graham Ike, Khalif Battle, Braden Huff, Nolan Hickman, Ryan Nembhard, and Ben Gregg. Their offensive is the best unit on the floor from a statistical perspective.
A glance at the roster from top to bottom tells you that this is one of the most loaded teams Mark Few has had in a few seasons. Some early season results proved that as well, but then faith started to wane after back-to-back losses to Oregon State and Santa Clara — the first time that’s happened in over a decade.
I haven’t lost faith so easily. The talent is undeniable, as is the offensive weaponry. Few is one of the sport’s best coaches and will get this roster to gel eventually, and the response since the Santa Clara loss has been inspiring (43-point win at Portland, 38-point win against Oregon State).
The Zags aren’t going down without a fight in the conference race and should be highly motivated down two losses in the conference standings. Few has this team back on track following the rare slip-ups in conference play, and the Zags know that they can’t afford to fall into an unassailable three-game deficit.
Saint Mary’s has yet to face a team with the size and athleticism of Gonzaga. Shutting man Mitchell Saxen can be a key to victory when facing the Gaels, and the Zags are uniquely positioned to counter him with their army of bigs.
Putting pressure on the Gaels’ ballhandlers has thrown them for a loop in recent seasons, and the Zags are running a nine-man rotation with Emmanuel Innocenti in the starting lineup while utilizing a full-court trap press. Now’s the perfect time to do that to flummox the methodical Gaels.
The Zags have dominated this matchup, winning 26 of the last 33 meetings. Few is 57-15 against Saint Mary’s in his career — a sustained run of superiority. Give me Gonzaga.
Gonzaga vs Saint Mary’s same-game parlay (SGP)
Gonzaga -1.5
Under 145
These two teams have trended heavily toward the Under, going 3-7 O/U in the last 10 meetings. Only one of those games had a total higher than today’s, resulting in an Under.
Although Gonzaga will look to speed up Saint Mary’s, that’s only possible to a certain extent. We’ve seen Randy Bennett’s preferred style of play for long enough to know that they’ll look to limit possessions (356th in adjusted tempo) and maximize rebounds (first nationally in rebound percentage).
Saint Mary’s prefers to operate in the paint on offense, ranking second in near-proximity attempt rate (per Haslametrics). Gonzaga has three big men in the rotation and is 15th in rebounding percentage (55%), so on paper, it is well-positioned to counter what the Gaels do best.
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Gonzaga vs Saint Mary’s odds
Gonzaga vs Saint Mary’s live odds
Gonzaga vs Saint Mary’s opening odds
- Spread: Gonzaga +1 (-110) | Saint Mary’s -1 (-110)
- Moneyline: Gonzaga -105 | Saint Mary’s -115
- Over/Under: Over 148.5 (-110) | Under 148.5 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365
Gonzaga vs Saint Mary’s betting trend to know
Gonzaga has won 26 of the last 33 meetings between these two schools. Find more college basketball betting trends for Gonzaga vs. Saint Mary’s.
How to watch Gonzaga vs Saint Mary’s
| Location | University Credit Union Pavilion, Moraga, CA |
| Date | Saturday, 2-1-2025 |
| Tip-off | 11:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Gonzaga vs Saint Mary’s key injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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