The Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves will kick off a three-game set at Truist Park on Friday with both teams coming in hot after a pair of series sweeps in the mid-week.
The Phillies come into Friday riding a four-game winning streak, while the Braves took all three matches versus Washington in their previous series. Philadelphia leads the season series 4-2 SU.
Here are our free picks and predictions for Philadelphia Phillies vs Atlanta Braves for Wednesday, May 7 (7:20 PM EST).
Phillies vs Braves odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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MLB Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonThis moneyline has bounced around quite a bit at PointsBet USA, from Philadelphia -165 to as high as -180 and as low as -145, where the moneyline rests at 4 p.m. ET. The Braves are drawing 65 percent of moneyline tickets, while the Phillies are landing 63 percent of moneyline cash. The total dropped from 8.5 to 7.5 and just returned to 8, with ticket count 2/1 on the Over and money 2/1 on the Under.
Check out the full line movement for this gamePhillies vs Braves betting preview
Starting pitchers
Zach Eflin (1-1, 3.49 ERA): Eflin has been eating innings for the Phillies this season, as the right-hander has amassed 38 1-3 innings over his six starts. The Philadelphia starter has tossed at least six innings in each game and already faced Atlanta twice. In those two starts, Eflin has allowed five runs on eleven hits over 13 innings — good for a 3.46 ERA to go along with a 1.00 WHIP.
Charlie Morton (2-1, 5.08 ERA): Morton has seen his ERA rise over the last two seasons, as the 37-year old may be heading to an end. Morton has allowed four or more runs in three of his last four starts and is 3-4 SU against the Phillies over his career to go along with a 5.48 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP.
Weather
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Key injuries
Phillies: Bryce Harper OF (probable), Jean Segura IF (probable), Jojo Romero RP (out), Matt Joyce OF (out), Roman Quinn OF (out).
Braves: Alex Jackson C (out), Travis d’Arnaud C (out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Over is 5-0 in Charlie Morton’s last five home starts as a favorite. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Braves.
Moneyline pick
The Phillies ripped off four straight wins against the Brewers and their impressive starting rotation this week and set their sights on the Atlanta Braves — a team they've beaten four times in six meetings this year. Philadelphia will also be expecting a massive boost to their offense with the likely returns of two of the team’s best hitters.
The Swinger of Swagger, Bryce Harper, has been taking batting practice this week and management is hopeful he can go for Friday. In his 24 games this year, Harper is slashing .317/.446/.598 and is hitting .444 over his career against Atlanta starter Charlie Morton. Jean Segura has also completed his minor-league rehab and is looking like all-systems-go tonight.
Philadelphia has hit just .211 and posted a 76 wRC+ over the last seven days — and went 5-2 SU — so getting these bats into the lineup will be a big deal for the division-leading Phillies.
Starter Zach Eflin has posted a 3.54 ERA against the Braves over his career and is enjoying his best season to date. The former first-rounder has gone deep into each of his six starts this year and recorded a quality start in four of them. The bullpen blew his last start but Eflin’s ability to get into the seventh helps keep a Philadelphia relief corps that has the sixth-worst ERA in the league off the field.
Charlie Morton will toe the rubber for the Braves, who are coming off a series against the Nationals that saw them sweep the three-game set. The 37-year-old right-hander has given up nine runs over his last 10 2-3 innings and has allowed four homers across his last 22 innings. Entering his age-38 season, Morton is trending in the wrong direction as his career is coming to an end.
Outside of Ronald Acuna, the Atlanta offense has struggled, as even Freddie Freeman got a day off yesterday to try and snap out of a season-long slump that has him hitting just .202. Atlanta strung together just four hits in yesterday’s 3-2 win and sent the minimum 15 batters to the plate over the game’s final five frames.
The Phillies took four straight against one of the best rotations in baseball and now face the Braves’ bottom-5 starting unit while paying +150. Sign us up for the road team who should be sparked with the likely additions of Harper and Segura.
PREDICTION: Philadelphia ML (+150)
Over/Under pick
Combined, both clubs are 35-26-1 O/U on the season while Friday’s starters are 8-4 to the Over in 2021. The Braves have been an Over-cashing home team this season, with an 11-3 O/U mark to begin the year — only one team, the Reds, have a better home Over record than the Braves.
This doesn’t mean that the Atlanta offense has done a lot of the heavy lifting, as the ATL starters own the National League’s fifth-worst ERA of 4.75 and the third-highest FIP (4.77). The bullpen has also been consistently mediocre with a 4.58 ERA, which is the fifth-highest in the NL. Don’t let the series versus the light-hitting Nationals fool you, the Braves are just one series removed from allowing 26 runs across a three-game set to the Blue Jays.
The Atlanta offense is swinging a better bat home this year, as well. The Braves are scoring a full run more per game at Truist Park at 5.21 runs. Atop of the Atlanta order is a player who leads the NL in wRC+, xwOBA, home runs and runs scored in Acuna. The 23-year-old outfielder is the favorite (+275) to capture the NL MVP and should be a big factor in the game’s total.
The additions of Segura and Harper are welcomed to Over backers. On the year, the two middle-of-the-order hitters are hitting well over .300 and have hit Morton well this year going a combined 6-for-13.
We still like Eflin in this pitching matchup, but the Philadelphia righty has been hit on the road in 2021. Eflin has made just two road starts this year but has given up nine runs over 12 2-3 innings. This includes a start at Truist Park that saw him give up four runs on seven hits across six innings of work.
With the total of 8.5 trending downwards, we’re hopping on the Over at +100 before it moves to 8 and we’re stuck drinking the juice if we want the Over.
PREDICTION: Over 8.5 (+100)
Phillies vs Braves betting card
- Philadelphia ML (+150)
- Over 8.5 (+100)
Picks made on 5/7/2021 at 5:45 a.m. ET
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