The Philadelphia Phillies’ indomitable offense has taken a bit of a step back over the last week, and after failing to score a single run against the Giants in an extra-innings loss on Tuesday, they'll take aim at talented youngster Kyle Harrison.
While Harrison hasn’t offered much hope in his season-long metrics, might this matchup be a good one for the lefty? Will Cristopher Sanchez continue his excellent run and shut down a soaring Giants offense?
Phillies vs Giants prediction
My best bet
Giants moneyline (+115 at BetRivers)
My analysis
Kyle Harrison was ticketed for success right from the jump, and much was expected from him in his first Big League season. It hasn’t exactly gone according to plan with a 3.90 ERA in 11 starts, and he’s seemed to get a bit worse in May with his expected ERA reaching 4.62.
Harrison’s still been merely average in the strikeout and walk departments, as many pitchers are when initially making the leap to the majors, but one thing that’s gone wrong for him this year is what’s happened on contact, with fairly steep rises in hard-hit rate and expected batting average. He’s managed to get a few more balls coming back on the ground, but still stands as an extreme fly-ball pitcher at around 11 points higher than average and his xBA has risen a hair in May from .251 to .254.
San Francisco grades out as one of the hardest parks to hit home runs in, and against fly-ball pitchers this year, the Philadelphia Phillies have hit just .238 with a .406 slugging percentage. Power is really what drives this team, so it’s no surprise it’s been decidedly worse against pitchers who do a good job of keeping the ball in the yard and away from its home park, dropping by 25 points in slugging.
I think Harrison has a reasonable chance of making it out of this one alive, and on the flip side, Christopher Sanchez has been excellent at pitching to ground balls which seems to be an arduous matchup for the San Francisco Giants. They do rank 10th in wRC+ against lefties, however, and don't strike out much as a team. They’ve hit their best against finesse pitchers as classified by Baseball Reference, which is where Sanchez would find himself.
The Giants may have lost LaMonte Wade, Jr. to injury, but he wasn’t in the lineup against left-handers anyway. This team is well-positioned to hit lefties and I trust the recent form we’ve seen with a plethora of exciting young bats joining the team and finding immediate success.
In a good spot for Harrison, San Francisco should continue its good run at home and improve to 18-10 in these games with a seventh win in eight tries.
Phillies vs Giants same-game parlay (SGP)
Giants moneyline
Wilmer Flores to record a hit
Matt Chapman 2+ total bases
I’m getting behind the hotter of the two offenses here in two ways, one of which will come as no surprise and one that may be a bit of a head-scratcher.
I’ll start with the unpopular one, which is for Wilmer Flores to pick up a hit. He’s traditionally mashed lefties and is now the man tasked with making up for the incredible production lost by the injury to Wade. Sure, he’s hit .203 against southpaws this year, but he’s now picked up five in his last seven games to hit .263 over 19 at-bats.
To make matters even better, three hits have come after he’s been inserted as a pinch-hitter against a left-handed reliever, and I do think with the collection of lefties in the Phillies bullpen and an unproven career Triple-A player behind him at first base, he should be trusted to stay in there for most, if not all of the game.
Then, it’s hard not to back the scorching-hot Matt Chapman once again. He has crushed lefties to the tune of a .347/.396/.612 slash line this year and has found his swing again with a .347 batting average in the last 13 games with 10 of his 17 hits going for extra bases.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Phillies vs Giants odds
Phillies vs Giants live odds
Phillies vs Giants opening odds
- Run line: Philadelphia -1.5 (+115) | San Francisco +1.5 (-135)
- Moneyline: Philadelphia -125 | San Francisco +105
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 | Under 7.5
Phillies vs Giants spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Giants opened at roughly +120 on the moneyline, and after moving down as low as +105 on average, have come back up a bit to around +110 or +115 at most books.
- The total opened and remains at 7.5 but we did see a move to 8 early on Wednesday before some money pushed it back down.
- Over at DraftKings, 76% of the bets and a strong 87% of the handle have come in on the Phillies.
- While 55% of the tickets wagered on the total are on the Over, it accounted for a handsome 71% of the money,
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Phillies vs Giants trend
The Giants have cashed the first-five moneyline in 15 of their last 22 games at home (+10.90 units / 35% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Giants
Phillies vs Giants game info
| Location: | Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA |
| Date: | Wednesday, 5-29-2024 |
| First pitch: | 3:45 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCS-Philadelphia, NBCS-Bay Area |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Cristopher Sanchez (2-3, 3.15 ERA) |
| Giants starting pitcher: | Kyle Harrison (4-1, 3.90 ERA) |
Phillies vs Giants latest injuries
Phillies vs Giants weather
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