We have a marquee matchup in the Champions League Round of 16 this Wednesday with the first leg between Paris Saint-Germain and Liverpool.
PSG have played brilliantly domestically, but Liverpool are arguably the best team in the world right now and our Paris Saint-Germain vs Liverpool predictions have the away side picking up the winner at rare plus money odds.
Be sure to read my Champions League betting picks for Wednesday, March 5, with kickoff at 3:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+.
PSG vs Liverpool picks and predictions
My best bet:
Liverpool moneyline (+179 at TonyBet)
My analysis
Liverpool are walking away with the Premier League and sit 13 points ahead of second-place Arsenal, while PSG are also 13 points clear of Marseille in Ligue 1.
While neither title is statistically won, they are most likely already sealed. That means the Champions League now becomes priority with this first leg being hugely important ahead of the second leg at Anfield. Liverpool have turned Anfield into a fortress over recent seasons, meaning PSG need to hold an advantage heading into that game.
But over recent months, it’s been very rare to see Liverpool at plus money to win, so we’re happily grabbing the opportunity.
It certainly won’t be an easy game, with PSG unbeaten in Ligue 1 and featuring a direct, quick, and dangerous front three. Ousmane Dembele is putting up video game numbers, Bradley Barcola is emerging from Mbappe’s shadow on the left flank, and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia has starting life in France after his January move.
As good as this PSG side is, their biggest problem is the same one they’ve had since first getting huge Qatari investment: the league they play in. Criticism of Ligue 1 is often unfair and it’s far more competitive than the ‘farmers league’ it gets slandered as, but it’s still a huge step up in quality from their domestic opposition to some of the giants they meet in Europe.
The scary thing for PSG is that this Liverpool side is far superior to any of the teams they’ve played so far and they are relatively injury-free with none of their starters sidelined. Liverpool have found ways to win when it matters this season. They’ve lost just four games all season across every competition, and they’ve managed to beat Man City and Newcastle without even conceding in the last two weeks.
The French team’s attack is hugely impressive and they’ll have a good chance of scoring but Liverpool’s attack is even more unstoppable, which is why they’ve scored 13 more goals than anyone else in the Premier League. You really won’t get many chances to bet on Liverpool at plus money again before the end of this season, so it’s a wager you have to take this Wednesday.
PSG vs Liverpool same-game parlay (SGP)
Liverpool moneyline
Mohamed Salah to score
Ousmane Dembele to score
By backing Liverpool to win, we’re going to see goals, which is why our second leg is for Mohamed Salah to score. The Egyptian has scored 30 times in all competitions for Liverpool this season and is the front runner for the Ballon d’Or. He’s on a hot streak, too, with nine goals in nine games.
The final bet is for PSG star Ousmane Dembele to score. Dembele has stepped into the limelight after Kylian Mbappe’s exit and become PSG’s main man. He’s only had double-digit goals once in his career, with 12 in his first season as a professional at Rennes.
However, he’s exploded with 18 Ligue 1 goals, two in domestic cups, and a further six in the Champions League this year. He’s scored 18 goals in his past 13 games across all competitions and will pose a real threat to Liverpool, although it’s unlikely to be enough to get PSG the win.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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PSG vs Liverpool odds
PSG vs Liverpool live odds
PSG vs Liverpool opening odds
- Moneyline: PSG +165 | Liverpool +144
- Draw: +260
- Over/Under: Over 3 (-120) | Under 3 (-106)
PSG vs Liverpool side and Over/Under analysis
- Liverpool have lost just four games across the whole season in all competitions.
- The teams last met in 2018 with PSG winning 2-1 on home soil.
- Six of PSG’s 10 UCL games have had Over 2.5 goals.
- Four of Liverpool’s eight UCL games have had Over 2.5 goals.
How to watch PSG vs Liverpool
| Location | Parc des Princes, Paris, France |
| Date | Wednesday, 3-5-2025 |
| Time | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Paramount+ |
| Weather | Clear skies, 51.9 degrees, 2 mph W winds |
PSG vs Liverpool key injuries
PSG: None.
Liverpool: Joe Gomez CB (Out), Conor Bradley RB (Out).
Not intended for use in MA.
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