The Champions League Round of 16 starts on Tuesday and the draw gave us some huge clashes, with Real Madrid facing hated local rivals Atletico Madrid.
This is a rivalry that always brings fireworks, but Atletico know how to trouble their city rivals and have tested them recently. With that and the missing players in Los Blancos team, our Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid predictions have the game finishing as a draw.
Be sure to read my Champions League betting picks for Tuesday, March 4, with kickoff at 3:00 p.m. ET on Paramount+.
Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid picks and predictions
My best bet:
Draw (+265 at TonyBet)
My analysis
Tuesday serves us up four Champions League games but the headline matchup is — without a doubt — El Derbi Madrileno, which sees Real Madrid host their fierce cross-city rivals Atletico at the Santiago Bernabeu. There is no love lost between these teams with their rivalry dating back over 100 years.
While Real Madrid have historically had the better of the rivalry, winning 116 of 238 meetings, it’s gotten closer in recent years.
The teams have met each other three times in the past 13 months, with all games finishing 1-1, including the game at the Bernabeu just under one month ago. Heading into this game, Real Madrid are arguably in a worse state than they were for that game. They beat Man City in the playoff to reach this stage, while Atletico qualified due to finishing in the Top 8 of the table, so they’re more rested.
A shorthanded roster is Real's biggest hurdle. Long-term absentee Dani Carvajal is a big loss. As is Jude Bellingham, who got suspended after picking up a booking in the second leg of the Man City. Bellingham thrived alongside Kylian Mbappe and is key to winning the ball back up the field, but also creating chances for Real’s electric front three.
This game is at Real Madrid’s home ground, meaning that Atletico will play the second, decisive leg at their home stadium. That gives them an advantage and means that they will come into this game with the aim of not losing.
While Atletico are more expansive and entertaining than they have been previously, Diego Simeone is still a manager who isn’t afraid to be pragmatic when needed and they’ll certainly look to frustrate and irritate their rivals while keeping the game close.
The quality and experience in the Real Madrid squad are exceptional, but Bellingham's absence deprives them of the heartbeat of their team and will only make the game closer. Atletico have a recent record of doing a great job of stopping Real’s attack fairly well, and that, combined with the possible game script of this being the first leg of the tie, make the chances of a draw very high, and a strong value proposition too.
Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid same-game parlay (SGP)
Draw
Julian Alvarez to score
Both teams to score - Yes
We’re going to back Atletico’s Argentinian striker Julian Alvarez to score. The 25-year-old is in good form and six of his 21 goals this season have come in the Champions League. He’s scored five in his past five games across all competitions, including when these teams last met in February.
The final leg of the Same-Game Parlay is for both teams to score, with Real certain to score. Real are averaging over two goals scored per game in La Liga and 2.8 goals scored per game in the Champions League. Their front three of Rodrygo, Vinicius Junior and Kylian Mbappe is amongst the best in the world and they won’t be kept out, despite Atletico’s defensive quality.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid odds
Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid live odds
Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid opening odds
- Moneyline: Real Madrid -127 | Atletico Madrid +320
- Draw: +255
- Over/Under: Over 2.5 (-106) | Under 2.5 (-120)
Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid side and Over/Under analysis
- Real Madrid have won 10 of their last 14 games in all competitions, with two defeats, including this past Saturday.
- Atletico have just one defeat in their past 26 games in all competitions.
- Eight of Real Madrid’s 10 Champions League games this season have had Over 2.5 goals.
- The last three meetings between the teams have had Under 2.5 goals.
How to watch Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid
| Location | Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid, Spain |
| Date | Tuesday, 3-4-2025 |
| Time | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | Paramount+ |
| Weather | 71% chance of rain, 51.2 degrees, 2.7 mph winds. |
Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid key injuries
Real Madrid: Dani Carvajal RB (Out), Eder Militao CB (Out), Dani Ceballos MID (Out), Jesus Vallejo CB (Out), Federico Valverde MID (Out), Jude Bellingham CM (Out).
Atletico Madrid: Koke CM (Out), Cesar Azpilicueta CB (Out).
Not intended for use in MA.
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