The New York Mets will try to carry momentum from last night's walk-off win when they host the Philadelphia Phillies in the first of a two-game set on May 13.
Unfortunately for them Philadelphia's offense is humming in recent weeks, and my Phillies vs. Mets prediction is focused on the Over of the visitor's team total. Find out why in my MLB picks below.
Phillies vs Mets prediction
My best bet
Phillies team total Over 3.5 (-136 at FanDuel)
My analysis
The Philadelphia Phillies have been one of the best offensive teams in baseball, averaging 5.20 runs per game — just behind the Dodgers (5.24) for the most in the league — while putting up an impressive .760 OPS.
Philadelphia isn’t at full strength tonight with Trea Turner set to miss several weeks following a hamstring strain. His absence is hardly slowing the Phillies down, as Bryce Harper & Co. have proven more than capable of carrying the load in his absence. In eight games since Turner went down, Philly is averaging 7.5 runs per game and has scored at least five runs seven times.
Tonight, the Phillies will face off against 32-year-old Sean Manaea. The lefty has been solid for the New York Mets, going 2-1 with a 3.31 ERA and a 3.53 FIP. But Manaea certainly has some weak points: he’s giving up 4.8 walks per nine innings, and his 1.387 WHIP is the worst number for him since 2017.
That profile won't intimidate this Philadelphia lineup. Not only are the Phillies capable of hitting anyone, but they’ve been especially deadly against southpaw pitching, putting up a slightly higher OPS against lefties (.763 vs .758).
While Turner is a key right-handed bat who’s out of the lineup, Alec Bohm has been crushing southpaws, while J.T. Realmuto and Harper have also been excellent.
The Mets have had strong pitching all year long, from Manaea and others, but New York has still given up at least four runs in six of its last nine games. The Phillies should have little trouble hitting a modest team total of 3.5 runs tonight.
Phillies vs Mets same-game parlay (SGP)
Phillies team total Over 3.5
Over 7.5
Alec Bohm 2+ total bases
I like the Phillies to hit the Over on their run total, but I don’t think they’ll stop at four runs. They should get close to carrying the game total on their own, and the Mets will contribute as well, making me add that Over bet to my same-game parlay.
In addition, I’m taking Bohm to rack up at least two bases tonight. Bohm is crushing southpaws to the tune of a .380 BA with a 1.056 OPS. Bohm has also picked up at least two total bases in each of his last three outings.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Phillies vs Mets odds
Phillies vs Mets live odds
Phillies vs Mets opening odds
- Run line: Philadelphia -1.5 (+145) | New York +1.5 (-161)
- Moneyline: Philadelphia (-119) | New York (+110)
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-107) | Under (-105)
Phillies vs Mets spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Phillies opened as a -125 favorite in tonight’s game. The line has tightened since then, with the consensus moneyline sitting around Philadelphia -115, while you can still find +100 on the Mets.
- The Mets have lost about half a unit for bettors on the year, while Philadelphia has won 10 units on the moneyline this season.
- Tonight’s total opened at 7.5 runs, and that remains the consensus total. The Over is a slight favorite, with most books offering -115, while the Under is sitting at -105.
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Phillies vs Mets trend
The Phillies have scored at least four runs in eight of their last nine games. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Mets
Phillies vs Mets game info
| Location: | Citi Field, Queens, NY |
| Date: | Monday, 5-13-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCS-Philadelphia, SNY |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Cristopher Sanchez (2-3, 3.22 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher: | Sean Manaea (2-1, 3.31 ERA) |
Phillies vs Mets latest injuries
Phillies vs Mets weather
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