Phillies vs Nationals Picks and Predictions: Philly Crushes Washington's Tetreault

The red-hot Philadelphia Phillies try for the rare five-game series sweep when they take on the Washington Nationals on Sunday.

Philadelphia has won 15 of its 17 games this month, including a pair of extra-inning contests in the last two games in Washington. The MLB betting odds have the Phillies priced as -169 favorite with Zach Eflin on the mound while the Nationals come back as +150 home underdogs at +150 on Father’s Day.

Here are our free MLB picks and predictions for Phillies at Nationals on June 19.

Phillies vs Nationals odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Philadelphia opened as a -169 favorite with Washington coming back at +150 on the moneyline. This has since swung to as high as Phillies -200 with the Nationals pegged at +170. The total hit the board at 9.5 runs with the Over juiced to as high as -125.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.

Phillies vs Nationals predictions

• Prediction: Phillies ML (-180)
• Prediction: Over 9.5 (-115)
• Best bet: Phillies TT Over 5.5 (-115)

Picks made on 6/19/2022 at 9:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Phillies vs Nationals game info

• Location: Nationals Park, Washington, DC
• Date: Sunday, June 19, 2022
• First pitch: 12:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Peacock

Phillies vs Nationals betting preview

Starting pitchers

Zach Eflin (2-4, 3.98 ERA): Eflin tests out his wonky knee after leaving his last start due to soreness. The right-hander still pitched six innings and threw 80 pitches before getting the hook, allowing four runs on five hits – two of which were home runs. He allowed just one earned run over the two prior starts, throwing 12 innings with eight strikeouts and four walks in that span.

Jackson Tetreault (0-1, 15.75 ERA): The righty makes just his second start of his major league career on Sunday. Tetreault went four innings with seven earned runs on nine hits, including three home runs in his debut effort against Atlanta on Tuesday. He’s getting a second start due to injuries to the Nats’ pitching staff but another poor effort will likely see him moved to the bullpen or sent back down.

Weather

Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.

Key injuries

Phillies:  Johan Camargo 3B (Out), Jean Segura SS (Out).
Nationals: Alcides Escobar 2B (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 18-7 in Phillies' last 25 overall. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Nationals

Phillies vs Nationals picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Moneyline analysis

Philadelphia needed just two runs to get past Washington in Game 4 of this NL East rivalry Saturday, taking a 2-1 victory in extra innings. That final score comes on the heels of the Phillies outscoring the Nationals 23-11 in the opening three games.

The bats have been hot for the Phils during this June steak, hitting a collective .839 OPS over the past 17 games (fourth highest) and plating an average of 6.18 runs per contest during this early-summer turnaround.

Tetreault is helping the Nationals tread water with the rotation after a slew of injuries to the pitching staff. He tossed 91 pitches through only four innings against the Braves last time out. And while he walked only one batter, he struck out just two and served up three dingers. 

The Phillies haven’t wasted time getting going, ranking out as one of the top first-five innings offenses in the bigs. That’s especially true on the road where they average an MLB-best 3.03 runs in the opening five frames as visitors.

If Tetreault continues to burn through pitches, Philadelphia will chase him early and turn things over to a Nationals’ bullpen that lugs a collective ERA of 4.48 – the fifth-highest mark in the majors.

Prediction: Phillies moneyline (-180 at BetRivers)

Over/Under analysis

Eflin underwent some scans of his knee and threw a bullpen session Friday, giving him the all-clear for the Father's Day start. The righty has been solid in his last three outings, owning a 2.50 ERA with 12 Ks to four walks, but did get roughed up early into his last outing. 

Eflin allowed two two-run homers in the first inning against Miami then gave up only a single hit and retired the final 13 batters he faced before getting pulled after six innings. He has been susceptible to the long ball in his recent appearances, with homers allowed in his last five starts going back to May 22 – helping produce a 4-1 Over/Under mark in those starts. He'd given up only one HR in the first six starts of the season.

We have two starters – one making his second career start and another pitching on a tender knee – who have been beaten up by the big fly in their recent showings as well as two bullpens known for giving up runs late into games.

Prediction: Over 9.5 (-115 at DraftKings)

Best bet

As mentioned above, hot hitting has powered this Phillies side to a 15-2 mark in June. The team is scoring more than six runs per game and sits with a team total of 5.5 runs for this finale on Sunday.

Philadelphia has posted six or more runs in 11 of those past 17 contests, riding a powerful .490 slugging percentage and amassing 31 total home runs this month – third most in the majors in June. 

While Philadelphia has been doing damage in the first five innings, this lineup can also help close out games and ranks seventh in scoring (averaging 1.5 runs) in the late innings (7-9). With Tetreault likely getting chased early on, the Phils can continue to light up the scoreboard against a Nats team allowing the fifth-most runs in the final three innings on the season (1.43).

Pick: Phillies team total Over 5.5 (-115 at bet365)

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