The first installment of this three-game series between two Pennsylvania teams gets underway Friday evening with the NL Central’s Pittsburgh Pirates hosting the NL East’s Philadelphia Phillies.
This weekend marks the first meeting between these two clubs this season, with Philadelphia currently in a much better spot than the last-place Pirates.
Will the Phillies take care of business, or can the Pirates defend their home diamond as underdogs in the MLB odds? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Phillies vs Pirates on Friday, July 28.
Phillies vs Pirates odds
Phillies vs Pirates predictions
Right-hander Zack Wheeler is slated to take the mound for the Philadelphia Phillies in this matchup, and he should be a good candidate to back. Through 20 starts this season, Wheeler is 7-5 with a 3.88 ERA and a 1.14 WHIP.
His underlying metrics are even stronger, as the right-hander ranks in the 80th percentile or higher in average exit velocity, xERA/xwOBA, xSLG, and Barrel%. Specifically, we are going to back Wheeler in the strikeout department.
Entering this contest, he ranks in the 62nd percentile or higher in K%, Whiff%, and Chase Rate. Wheeler has really worked on his sweeper this season, a pitch that carries a commanding 42.7 Whiff%.
Currently, you can find his strikeout prop at 6.5 at PointsBet, a number Wheeler has surpassed in six of his past eight starts.
Meanwhile, after a promising start to the campaign, the Pittsburgh Pirates have crashed back down to last place in the NL Central. The hitting has just not been there, ranking in the bottom-third of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, SLG, OPS, and home runs.
Pittsburgh also struggles with the punchout, ranking 19th in K% when facing right-handed pitching. These strikeout woes are likely to continue against Wheeler.
Through 26 career plate appearances against the right-hander, this current Pirates lineup possesses a fade-worthy 26.9 K%. Over his past four starts against Pittsburgh, Wheeler is 3-0 with a 1.78 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP.
He has recorded at least seven strikeouts in all four of those outings.
My best bet: Zack Wheeler Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-150)
Phillies vs Pirates same-game parlay
Zack Wheeler Over 6.5 Strikeouts
Under 8.5
Phillies moneyline
Each leg in this same-game parlay builds upon each other. We already covered the first leg in the best bet section above, but let us look at the other two.
While Wheeler is likely to dominate once again, Pittsburgh also hands the ball to a strong pitcher in this matchup. Right-hander Mitch Keller is coming off his first All-Star Game selection due to the strong campaign he has put together.
Through 21 starts, he is 9-6 with a 4.01 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. Those numbers are really hampered by two straight poor outings following the All-Star Break, although his underlying metrics suggest those are outlier performances.
Currently, Keller ranks in the 66th percentile or higher in average exit velocity, HardHit%, xERA, xwOBA, and xSLG. However, Philadelphia should still do enough to win this game, considering Wheeler is on the mound and the Phillies rank higher than the Pirates in every hitting statistic across the board.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Phillies vs Pirates moneyline and Over/Under analysis
Philadelphia opened as a -160 favorite and has stayed right around that number. I would be surprised if it moves too far away from this price, considering the Phillies boast the better pitcher and lineup in this matchup.
However, Keller is due for a bounce-back performance, which is why this number won’t venture near the -200 range. That brings us to the total, which opened at 8.5 and has also stayed at that number.
Both pitchers are strong and the Pirates struggle at the dish, but the total may fail to drop to eight due to Philadelphia’s hitting and Keller’s past two starts. If it does drop to eight, I would not play the Under in the same game parlay at that number.
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Trend to know
Wheeler has recorded seven or more strikeouts in six of his past eight starts. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Pirates
Phillies vs Pirates game info
| Location: | PNC Park, Pittsburgh, PA |
| Date: | Friday, July 28, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:05p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCSP, ATTP |
Starting pitchers
Zack Wheeler (7-5, 3.88 ERA): Wheeler is attempting to stamp his seventh straight season with a sub-4.00 ERA. The right-hander has been strong all year, both statistically and analytically. Utilizing the sweeper much more this season, Wheeler has racked up strikeouts at a high clip (27.1 K%).
Mitch Keller (9-6, 4.01 ERA): Keller is a stronger pitcher than his 4.01 ERA suggests, a number that is heavily weighted by his past two starts. Over those two outings, he is 0-2 with an 11.45 ERA and 2.00 WHIP. However, the All-Star pitcher is likely to turn it around sooner rather than later, given that he ranks in the 66th percentile or higher in average exit velocity, HardHit%, xERA, xwOBA and xSLG.
