The Atlanta Braves will put their seven-game winning streak on the line tonight as they open a four-game set vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates and their light-hitting offense. Max Fried will get the ball for the heavily favored home side (-270) while the visitors will counter with JT Brubaker.
Can the Pirates improve on their 1-9 straight-up record in Atlanta over their last 10 visits or will their 8-16 SU record against winning teams continue to be an issue with tonight’s underdogs? Find out in our free MLB picks and predictions for Pirates vs. Braves.
Pirates vs Braves odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Braves opened as -275 ML favorites but moved slightly to -270, which isn’t very significant. The -1.5 run line is paying -135.
The total has seen some movement as it opened at 8, hit 8.5 shortly after, and is currently leaning towards the 9 at -125 to the Over 8.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Pirates vs Braves predictions
Picks made on 6/09/2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Pirates vs Braves game info
• Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA
• Date: Thursday, June 9, 2022
• First pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET
• TV: AT&T SportsNet Pittsburgh, Bally Sports Southeast
Pirates vs Braves betting preview
Starting pitchers
JT Brubaker (0-5, 4.70 ERA): Brubaker is coming off his worst start of the season where the winless right-hander allowed six runs, including three home runs. Opponents are hitting just .196 off his primary pitch (sinker) but he's gotten touched up on his secondary offerings. He sits in the bottom third of the league in barrel percentage.
With Brubaker’s control issues (15th in BB/9) and home run problems (21st in HR/9), he is always a threat to give up multiple runs, and this is not a great matchup for the Pittsburgh starter against a Braves lineup that tends to go deep.
Max Fried (5-2, 2.74 ERA): Fried is coming off an eight-inning scoreless performance vs. the Rockies at Coors Field and has been getting deep into nearly every start. The lefty has gone at least six innings in nine straight and has recorded a quality outing in eight of those.
Fried is still striking out less than a batter an inning but has an elite chase rate this season and his walk rate ranks in the top 10%. This is a great matchup for the lefty as the Pirates sit near the bottom of the league in offensive categories and have scored just nine runs over their last four games.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Pirates: Yoshitomo Tsutsugo OF (Out), Ben Gamel 1B (Out), Greg Allen OF (Out).
Braves: Eddie Rosario SS (Out), Travis d’Arnaud C (Questionable), Collin McHugh RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Pirates are 1-9 SU in the last 10 meetings in Atlanta. Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Braves
Pirates vs Braves picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Run line analysis
The Braves may own a 30-27 record and sit seven games back from the division-leading Mets, but the reigning champs are in the middle of a seven-game winning streak, having scored 53 runs over that stretch. No team in the National League has hit more home runs than the Braves who also have the league’s No. 2 slugging percentage over the last 14 days.
The Braves are coming off a 13-2 dismantling of the A's at Truist Park yesterday as the lineup is healthy, hitting for power, and every starter came away with at least one hit.
Austin Riley hit his 15th homer of the season last night and is among the league leaders on the season. Ronald Acuna Jr. is slashing .400/.441/.767 over his last seven games while one through six, this is as strong a lineup baseball has. They also have a great matchup tonight against second-year starter JT Brubaker.
The Pittsburgh right-hander gave up three long balls in his last outing. Meanwhile, Atlanta tagged him for three homers, including two from Riley in his only appearance vs. the Braves last season. Atlanta's No. 3 hitter could have another big day with Acuna and Dansby Swanson setting the table in front of him.
Brubaker will turn things over to a Pittsburgh bullpen that needed 62 pitches from its top two set-up men yesterday in Chris Stratton and Wil Crowe. Pittsburgh’s bullpen isn’t terrible but with the added usage yesterday, the Braves could be tacking on some runs in the later innings.
Losing by multiple runs is nothing new for the Pirates, who have a -79 run differential, which is the second-worst number in the NL. Atlanta has won by two or more runs in nine of its 13 home victories this season.
Max Fried is efficient af pic.twitter.com/W99Y3kO3YL
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) June 4, 2022
Fried has been one of the most-efficient pitchers this season and looked sharp in his last outing where he went eight scoreless in the thin Colorado air. The Braves only need one or two arms from the bullpen when Fried starts and all their best arms will be available today. The Braves bullpen leads all of baseball with a 10.45 K/9.
Prediction: Braves -1.5 run line (-130 at BetRivers)
Over/Under analysis
Bettors hit this Over 8 early and are currently sitting with a great number as the total sits at 8.5 and leans to the Over. The Braves are one of the league’s best Over teams with a 31-23-3 O/U record. No team has been more profitable to the Over at home than the Braves, who, with a 19-9-2 O/U mark, have a 67.9% hit rate to the Over.
Atlanta is averaging 6.8 runs over its last 10 and we know this home-run happy team likes hitting bombs, especially at home where they launch 1.46 per game, which is better than 28 other teams. The real question is: can the Pirates do their fair share of scoring?
Pittsburgh is scoring 4.00 runs per game over its last 10 and comes into tonight’s opener as the third-best Under team in baseball at 58.3% on the season. Pittsburgh’s offense has been brutal this season and has actually been even worse on the road where it’s scoring just 3.28 runs per game and hitting .220, which are bottom-five marks in the league.
Now, this light-hitting lineup has to face a locked-in Fried, who owns a 1.01 WHIP on the season and gets batters to chase at one of the highest rates in baseball. He also doesn't walk many. Pittsburgh doesn’t hit left-handing pitching well, either, and sits in the bottom-quarter of the league in wRC+ vs. LHP.
It might seem odd to like the run line but want the Under, especially with the market liking the Over, but at 8.5 +100 to the Under, we’d rather hit an Atlanta team total Over 4.5 (-135) than this full-game Over 8.5 at -125.
Taking the Under at Truist this year has been a losing endeavor, but the market is starting to correct itself, and the combination of Fried and this rested and strikeout-heavy bullpen is enough to lean on the Under after it moved from 8 to 8.5.
Prediction: Under 8.5 (+100 at bet365)
Best bet
Austin Riley might not be hitting .300 as he did a year ago, but the young corner infielder has increased his pop and sits with 15 homers on the year and sixth in the league in total bases. His .534 slugging percentage is also among the league’s elite.
Riley has collected multiple hits in nine of his last 16 games and has at least two bases in 11 of those 16 contests. Over his last 15 games, he’s slashing .349/.397/.762. He's locked in.
Austin Riley is hitting .358 with 7 HR over his last 16 games ????@TheMayorsOffice and @Plakata dive into the @Braves 3B and how his approach at the plate has allowed him to hit with power to all parts of the field.#MLBCentral | @austinriley1308 pic.twitter.com/6QETIqG8PS
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) June 9, 2022
He’ll also see Brubaker, against whom he went 2-for-3 last season with two home runs. The Pittsburgh starter has been known to give up the long ball and is coming off a start where he surrendered three.
Riley is the hottest bat in this lineup and with the depth of the Braves, it’s one of the most difficult orders to navigate.
Pick: Riley Over 1.5 total bases (+105)
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