Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Greene Gets Best of Mets

Tony Sartori's MLB betting picks for Friday night are targeting three pitcher strikeout props. Find out why he believes Hunter Greene is in for a big night vs. the Mets.

Tony Sartori - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Tony Sartori • Betting Analyst
Apr 5, 2024 • 09:35 ET • 4 min read

With a stacked 13-game slate throughout Friday, there are an abundance of MLB odds to choose from.

I’ve compiled my three best MLB player props for today’s action. As always, make sure you shop around and look for the best prices as these are rapidly-changing markets that see lots of action throughout the day.

Here are my free MLB picks in the player prop market for Friday, April 5.

MLB props for April 5

Picks made on 4/5 at 9:30 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.

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Best MLB bets today

Prop bet #1: More Mets misery

The Cincinnati Reds host the New York Mets in the evening portion of Friday’s MLB slate. Right-hander Hunter Greene gets the ball for Cincinnati and should be a good candidate in the strikeout department.

Yes, there are certainly flaws with Greene’s game, but the punchout is not one of them. Despite allowing two runs on five hits in under five innings of work in his first start of 2024, Greene still racked up seven strikeouts.

If he had gone longer, he could have gotten to eight, a number I believe he can eclipse by going against this terrible New York lineup. This season, the Mets rank in the Bottom 4 of the league in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, OBP, SLG and OPS.

They also rank in the bottom half of the league in K% when facing right-handed pitching, which bodes well for Greene.

Hunter Greene prop: Over 7.5 strikeouts (+125 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Brown bagging it

There is an AL West matchup later in the evening with the Texas Rangers hosting the Houston Astros. Right-hander Hunter Brown gets the nod for Houston and should also be a good candidate to back in the strikeout department on Friday.

While Brown did not put together the strongest rookie campaign, he was excellent with the punchout as he ranked in the 75th percentile in K%. He recorded nearly 200 strikeouts, which is impressive for the former fifth round pick out of Wayne State.

In his last start against Texas in 2023, Brown recorded six strikeouts across just four innings of work. There are plenty of good strikeout candidates in the Rangers’ lineup among the likes of Adolis Garcia, Jared Walsh and Ezequiel Duran, all of whom possess a K% north of 27% this season.

Hunter Brown prop: Over 5.5 strikeouts (+110 at BetMGM)

Prop bet #3: Cody broken

Sticking with the same game, we are going to fade Texas’ starting pitcher in Cody Bradford. I want to take this opportunity to sell high on Bradford after he collected six strikeouts across five innings in his first start this season against the Chicago Cubs.

With that said, Houston is an entirely different beast. This season, it ranks in the Top 3 of the league in hits per game, BA, SLG, OPS and home runs.

The Astros also do an incredible job at avoiding punchouts, ranking fourth in K%. Meanwhile, Bradford struggled mightily in that department last year, ranking in the 21st percentile in Whiff% and 37th percentile in K%.

Through 35 career plate appearances against Bradford, this current Houston lineup possesses a mere 17.1 K% and 13.7 Whiff%.

Cody Bradford prop: Under 3.5 strikeouts (+123 at Caesars)

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Tony Sartori - Covers.com
Betting Analyst

Tony Sartori has written over 1,000 pieces of sports betting content across multiple different media outlets. He covers the NHL, UFC, PGA, NFL and MLB. Tony started part-time while attending the University of Wisconsin-Madison, where he went on to receive a B.A. in Economics and a certificate in Entrepreneurship in 2022. He continues to work full-time in the sports betting landscape.

Due to the variety of sports he covers, Tony is handicapping every day. If he had one piece of betting advice for a new sports bettor, it would be to strictly enforce bankroll management rules for yourself. If you set aside $10,000 for your betting bankroll, then you should generally only be betting between $100 - $500 per play.

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