Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Savvy Salvy Racks up the Bases

Prop bet #1: LoanDepot Park Ranger

The biggest pitcher mismatch on the MLB betting board today is a showdown between Philadelphia Phillies lefthander Ranger Suarez and Miami Marlins southpaw Trevor Rogers. Suarez is 6-0 with a 1.72 ERA and .173 OBA through seven starts while Rogers is 0-5 with a 6.15 ERA and an OBA of .303 in seven starts. 

Although Suarez is coming off a game where he surrendered three runs to a stacked Padres lineup, he allowed a total of just one run in his previous four outings. He ranks in the top fifth percentile in hard hit rate, average exit velocity, and ground ball rate and he faces a weak Miami lineup that has the highest ground ball rate in the majors.

The Marlins are just 29th in the majors in OPS (.620) with that number dipping to .578 against lefties. The Phillies are second in the majors in OPS (.752) and they have an almost identical .753 OPS versus southpaws. With Suarez pitching significantly better than Rogers and the Phillies also boasting a massive advantage at the plate, bet on him to come away with another win tonight.

Ranger Suarez prop: To get the win (-115 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Savvy Salvy

The Kansas City Royals have been one of the best-hitting teams in the majors and tonight they have a juicy matchup at Angel Stadium. The Los Angeles Angels are starting Griffin Canning who has a 6.69 ERA with an OBA of .274 through seven starts. Canning sits in the bottom 20th percentile of the majors in barrel rate, average exit velocity, and ground ball rate.

Kansas City's lineup is anchored by a pair of studs in Bobby Witt Jr. (84 total bases in 39 games) and Salvador Perez (74 total bases in 37 contests). The Over 1.5 total bases is installed at -125 for Witt and at +100 for Perez but given their home/away splits, Perez seems like the far better choice.

Witt's ability to leg out doubles and triples leads to extra-base hits at spacious Kauffman Stadium but his slugging percentage dips to .433 in away contests. On the other hand, Perez's power numbers are suppressed by the deep fences at home but he slugs .642 on the road.

With Perez in the top 10th percentile in hard-hit rate and barrel rate, back him to go Over his total bases today.

Salvador Perez prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+100 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Tyler the Destroyer

The San Diego Padres strike out at the fifth-lowest rate in the majors but Tyler Glasnow's strikeouts O/U of 5.5 is simply too low tonight. This Over on this number is juiced as high as -170 but some books have shifted it to 6.5 and I would prefer to grab the milestone of 7+ at plus money. 

Glasnow has gone Over 6.5 punchouts in five of his last six games and racked up double-digits in Ks in three of those outings. The towering right-hander is averaging a whopping 12.7 strikeouts per nine innings over that span and he should eclipse this number against a Padres lineup that is batting just .238 at home.

This is also a good opportunity to ladder Glasnow's strikeouts at bet365 with 8 (+260), 9 (+550), and 10 (+1,200) providing fantastic value. 

Tyler Glasnow prop: 7+ strikeouts (+125 at bet365)