Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Marte Keeps Mashing for Dbacks

Prop bet #1: Even Steven

Cleveland Guardians outfielder Steven Kwan has arguably become the American League’s best pure hitter, and very quickly, mind you.

Kwan finished third in AL Rookie of the Year voting back in 2022 thanks to a .298 batting average before a little less consistent 2023 where he hit .268. But that seems like a thing of the past now, as the ball must look like the size of a grapefruit to him this season.

The 26-year-old outfielder would be leading the AL in batting average if he was qualified (he missed most of May with a hamstring injury), hitting a ridiculous .380 this season, and that injury hasn’t slowed him down at all. Kwan is on an eight-game hitting streak where he has a .500 batting average and a 1.295 OPS since his return from the lineup. 

Not surprisingly, Kwan ranks in the 99th percentile for expected batting average this season, and I expect him to keep getting knocks when he digs into the batter’s box to take on Kevin Gausman and the Toronto Blue Jays tonight.

Gausman has been one of baseball’s best pitchers the last few seasons, but something definitely looks off with the Jays’ right-hander this year. 

Gausman is getting hit hard and often this season, pitching to an ugly 5.14 expected ERA and surrendering a .280 opponent expected batting average. He also ranks in the Bottom 16% or worse in average exit velocity, hard hit percentage and barrel rate. 

It seems a little silly that we can get this price on Steven Kwan odds to go Over his total bases in this spot. A number he has gone Over six times during this eight-game hitting streak.

Steven Kwan prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+130 at BetMGM)

Prop bet #2: Waldron bubble

Betting on Matt Waldron and his knuckleball to rack up strikeouts is one of my favorite baseball bets going. It's just fun to back a knuckleball.

I’ve said it before, baseball is just better with the knuckleball, and Waldron’s is dancing right now. The San Diego Padres starter is pitching to a 3.31 expected ERA while opponents have just a .196 expected batting average against his knuckleball this season, and I like it to keep dancing when Waldron takes the ball against the New York Mets tonight.

Waldron is striking out a solid 23.3% of batters faced this season, and his effectiveness means he’s been able to stay in games longer and rack up the Ks. He is averaging 5 1/3 innings pitched per start heading into tonight’s matchup against the Mets.

The Mets have been pretty average when it comes to facing right-handers this season. New York ranks 18th in batting average, 19th in OPS, and 13th in wRC+ while striking out 21.3% of the time vs. righties.

I like Waldron to work close to six innings tonight, and with his and the Mets’ respective K-rates he projects out to just over five strikeouts, and wouldn’t you know it, his strikeout prop is sitting at 4.5, a number he has eclipsed in seven of his 13 starts. Matt Waldron odds to the Over being priced at +125 had me firing on this right away.

Matt Waldron prop: Over 4.5 strikeouts (+125 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: K-Mart special

Stay hot Ketel Marte! The Arizona Diamondbacks' star second baseman came through for us last night, cashing the Over on his total bases prop after going 1-4 with a double. I’m going back to the well as Marte and the D-backs open a weekend series against the Chicago White Sox.

Marte is having an incredible season overall, hitting .282 with an .860 OPS with 14 home runs and 37 runs batted in. So good, in fact, that he has the fourth-highest WAR in all of baseball and he’s been tearing the cover off the ball in June.

The 30-year-old switch hitter has a .417 batting average with a 1.339 OPS, including two doubles and four dingers over his last 10 games, and now we get a great matchup for Ketel Marte odds against White Sox starter Chris Flexen.

Like most of the Pale Hose, it’s been a rough go for Flexen this season. The 29-year-old right-hander is pitching to a 4.41 expected ERA and surrendering a .253 expected batting average. He also ranks in just the 24th percentile in K-rate, striking out just 18.2% of batters faced. That's not a great recipe for success when trying to get a guy like Marte out.

Marte has topped 1.5 total bases six times in his last nine games started, and at this price, I like the D-backs star to keep swinging a hot stick and go Over his TB prop again tonight.

Ketel Marte prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+110 at DraftKings)