Today’s MLB Prop Picks & Best Bets: Greene Plays Hero For Detroit

Prop bet #1: Parker clips Cards' wings

The Washington Nationals are on my radar for futures bets in the coming seasons, particularly if James Wood is legit. The other thing to like about this team is the young stable of talented arms, including today’s starter Mitchell Parker.

The 24-year-old southpaw has cooled off after a hot start but still has a respectable 3.61 ERA, 3.93 FIP, and 1.10 WHIP heading into today’s game against the St. Louis Cardinals. The matchup with the Cardinals is key here.

St. Louis stinks when it comes to hitting southpaws this season, ranking next to last in batting average, OPS, and wRC+ vs. LHP. The Cards also have the seventh-highest strikeout rate. So, Parker should be able to hold his own against this lineup for at least five innings.

Let’s get back to Woods and this intriguing young lineup that also includes CJ Abrams, Luis Garcia Jr., and Jacob Young, all 24 years old or younger. This young nucleus is heating up, ranking eighth in batting average, 11th in OPS, and 12th in wRC+ over the last month.

They get a solid matchup against an inconsistent Miles Mikolas. The veteran right-hander ranks in the 38th percentile in expected ERA (4.22) and 17th percentile in opponent expected batting average (.270). He's getting hit hard and often this season.

At this price, I like the young Nats hitters to give Parker an early lead and for the Nats to hold on for the win, giving their young lefty the positive decision. 

Mitchell Parker prop: To record a win (+195 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Greener pastures

Recently named All-Star Riley Greene has not only been one of the Detroit Tigers’ productive hitters this season but also one of the most productive hitters in the American League.

The 23-year-old's production has gone through the roof this season. He has 17 home runs in 326 at-bats after hitting 16 over the past two seasons combined (754 ABs). His 45 RBI also represents a career-high.

He enters today’s matchup with the rival Cleveland Guardians hitting .261 with a .856 OPS and is off to a good start in July, batting .364 with a 1.213 OPS, two home runs, and four RBIs over six games.

Greene is also mashing right-handed pitchers this season for a .287 average and a .925 OPS and gets a juicy matchup against Guardians youngster Gavin Williams.

Williams made 16 solid starts for Cleveland as a rookie last season but hasn’t been able to carry that over into 2024. The 24-year-old right-hander opened the year on the IL with elbow inflammation and only threw 17 minor-league innings before being activated ahead of his season debut on July 3. 

He got hammered for five runs on seven hits in just four innings of work against, wait for it, the Chicago White Sox.

Greene should have multiple chances to drive in runs in this one and I can’t say no to this price, which makes it a five-star play according to our Covers Prop Projections.

Riley Greene prop: Over 0.5 RBI (+215 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Pounce on Paddack

Let’s get this out of the way. The Chicago White Sox are catastrophically bad. They have the worst record and run differential in baseball but even the Pale Hose may not be bad enough to keep Minnesota Twins starter Chris Paddack Under his hits-allowed prop tonight.

The 28-year-old right-hander is pitching to a 4.71 expected ERA this season and getting hit hard and often. Paddack is pitching to a .274 expected batting average, which ranks in the 14th percentile among MLB pitchers. He also ranks in the 16th percentile in average exit velocity and 17th in hard-hit percentage. 

So, it’s no surprise that Paddack is giving up a ton of hits, surrendering five or more in 12 of his 15 starts, including each of his last five starts with the last three coming against the light-hitting Rockies and A’s. He also gave up six hits to the White Sox back on April 22. 

On top of that, the White Sox haven’t been the absolute worst recently, ranking 20th in batting average, and 22nd in OPS and wRC+ over the last 14 days.

The Over/Under for Paddack’s hits allowed prop is sitting at 4.5, with the Over sitting at +115. That price makes firing on the Over a solid play tonight.

Chris Paddack prop: Over 4.5 hits allowed (+115 at bet365)