The fourth and final game of Saturday’s Divisional Round schedule is arguably the main event of the day as Shohei Ohtani and the Los Angeles Dodgers play host to Fernando Tatis and the San Diego Padres.
These National League West rivals are loaded with star power, and some of the biggest names in the game highlight my MLB player props picks. Make sure you also check out our Padres vs. Dodgers predictions for October 5.
Padres vs Dodgers NLDS Game 1 props
- Ohtani 2+ TB (-105 at DraftKings)
- Yamamoto o1.5 ER (+100 at bet365)
- Machado o0.5 RBI (+190 at bet365)
Picks made on 10-5 at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
Padres vs Dodgers props
Prop bet #1: Shohei Ohtani 2+ total bases
You knew we had to have a prop bet on Shohei Ohtani in his first postseason game.
Ohtani will win his third MVP award in the last four seasons and his first in the National League following a season where he led the NL in home runs, RBI, on-base percentage, and OPS while posting an impressive .310 batting average.
The Japanese superstar also comes into the postseason on fire. Ohtani ended the year on a 12-game hitting streak where he had a stupid .547 average and a 1.637 OPS. That includes 13 extra-base hits and 22 RBI.
And while San Deigo Padres starter Dylan Cease enters this series pitching well and has solid numbers against a lot of the Dodgers hitters, like most things, Ohtani is an exception.
Ohtani is 4-for-15 with a double and two homers in his career vs. Cease. That’s good for a .385 expected batting average and a 1.037 expected slugging percentage.
Let’s not go crazy here. We're getting close to even money with Shohei to record 2+ total bases, something he did in 10 of his final 12 games in the regular season.
Prop bet #2: Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 1.5 earned runs
With Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman & Co. it’s no surprise the Los Angeles Dodgers are not only the favorites to win this series, but the World Series.
That said, the San Diego Padres enter the divisional round with all the confidence in the world. The Padres have the better pitching staff, and while they may not have the top-end talent of the Dodgers, this is still a really good lineup featuring the likes of Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado.
They're going to be a problem for Yoshinobu Yamamoto. It was an up-and-down first MLB season for the Japanese righty. Injuries limited him to just 18 starts this season, and he’s looked a little rusty in his four outings since returning.
Yamamoto has given up six runs on 16 hits and five walks over 16 innings, and while it was all the way back in March/April, the Padres got to Yamamoto for eight runs on eight hits and two walks in just six innings over two starts.
The Padres ended the year leading the majors in batting average vs. right-handed pitching while ranking fourth in OPS and third in wRC+.
Yamamoto’s earned runs allowed prop is sitting at 1.5 with the Over at even money. At this price, I’ll happily back the Pads lineup to stay hot and send Yamamoto Over this number.
Prop bet #3: Manny Machado Over 0.5 RBI
One San Diego player who I expect to contribute to the damage given to Yamamoto tonight is Manny Machado.
The Padres' third baseman had another productive year at the plate, finishing the season with a .279 BA, .797 OPS, 29 HRs, and 105 RBI. He also finished the season strong, hitting .303 with a .934 OPS, including six dingers and 19 RBI.
That continued in Game 2 of the Wild Card Round against the Atlanta Braves where he smacked a very important two-run double in what turned out to a 5-4 series-clinching win for the Padres.
Machado also had reverse splits this season, performing better against right-handed pitching, hitting .280 and driving in 88 of his 105 RBI vs. righties. And while it’s a small sample size he does have a home run in two at-bats vs. Yamamoto.
Machado was clutch for the Padres down the stretch, driving in at least one run in 12 of 23 games in September, and he already has one in the postseason. At +190, he looks like a great value to drive in another run tonight.
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