Despite a late charge up the standings, the Los Angeles Dodgers successfully held off the San Diego Padres to take the National League West crown a week ago. Now, they’ll look to fend them off once again, this time in the postseason.
Fresh off a sweep of the Atlanta Braves, the Padres will send a well-rested Dylan Cease to the hill opposite rookie Yoshinobu Yamamoto in Game 1. Despite both starters' impressive regular season numbers, my Padres vs. Dodgers predictions expect a high-scoring affair to kick off this SoCal series.
Without further ado, here's my MLB picks for Saturday, October 6. Make sure to also read our Padres vs. Dodgers prop bets!
Padres vs Dodgers prediction
My Padres vs Dodgers best bet
Over 7.5 (-115 at DraftKings)
My analysis
I could write an entire book on Dylan Cease, who’s been one of my least favorite pitchers to bet on due to his high degree of volatility. With a steady diet of walks and home runs, the San Diego Padres right-hander has been a strikeout-or-bust pitcher throughout his career.
The Los Angeles Dodgers present a nightmarish matchup for Cease, and they've historically been one of the most patient teams in the league over the last few years. L.A. is also one of the best in the league at hitting for power, and after a slight bout with strikeouts late in the year, the Dodgers reeled in those issues over the final four weeks of the year.
You couldn’t pay me enough to back Cease here, particularly given his lone postseason start lasted just 1 2/3 innings on account of some serious ineffectiveness. Dodger Stadium also isn’t an easy venue to keep the ball in the park, especially with the Dodgers' offense this hot. Away from the spacious comfort of his home park, Cease holds a 3.83 ERA, a far cry from his 3.03 ERA in San Diego.
Meanwhile, Yoshinobu Yamamoto could be in trouble against a Padres lineup that’s fared much better against fly-ball arms all year. San Diego batters boasted an excellent .213 ISO in the Wild Card round and continued its expert limitation of strikeouts at just 16.7%.
Yamamoto’s cooked in the strikeout department this year, but his middling .241 xBA should play up against a contact-oriented Padres group. I like both offenses to bring the boom tonight.
Shohei Ohtani pick: Won't Cease to Amaze
My best bet
Shohei Ohtani Over 1.5 total bases (+100 at BetMGM)
My analysis
Shohei Ohtani is 4-for-15 in his career against Cease, with three of those hits going for extra bases.
On top of that, the Dodgers superstar leads the team in total bases against “power” pitchers like Cease, hitting .298 with a .608 slugging percentage in the split. Considering Ohtani closed the year hitting above .600 in his final 10 games, he’s in store for a special postseason debut.
Padres vs Dodgers same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 7.5
Shohei Ohtani 2+ bases
Jackson Merrill 2+ total bases
The lone leg to cover here is Jackson Merrill, who went back and forth with Paul Skenes in NL Rookie of the Year odds all season.
Finishing the final two months over .300 and racking up three hits in the two games against Atlanta, I’m all in on Merrill tonight. The young outfielder also owns a .301 average against ground-ball pitchers like Yamamoto, slugging .558 in that split.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Padres vs Dodgers odds
Padres vs Dodgers live odds
Padres vs Dodgers opening odds
- Moneyline: San Diego +120 | Los Angeles -145
- Run line: San Diego +1.5 | Los Angeles -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 8.0 | Under 8.0
Padres vs Dodgers moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Dodgers opened as -145 favorites in Game 1 before shooting down as low as -130. The line’s settled back around -135.
- While 46% of the bets at DraftKings are on the Padres, they’ve accounted for 60% of the handle.
- The total was initially set at 8.0 before dipping to 7.5 on Friday night. 65% of tickets are on the Under.
Padres vs Dodgers trend
Los Angeles has hit the game total Over in 54 of its last 89 games (+19.75 Units / 20% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Padres vs. Dodgers.
Padres vs Dodgers Game 1 info
| Location: | Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles, CA |
| Date: | Saturday, 10-5-2024 |
| First pitch: | 8:38 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
| Padres starting pitcher: | Dylan Cease (14-11, 3.47 ERA) |
| Dodgers starting pitcher: | Yoshinobu Yamamoto (7-2, 3.00 ERA) |
Padres vs Dodgers latest injuries
Padres vs Dodgers weather
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