MLB Player Props for 7-29: Best Bets for Robert, Arozarena, & Lewis

Prop bet #1: Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 total bases

+110 at DraftKings

The Seattle Mariners once led the American League West by 10 games, but that advantage disappeared faster than the catch of the day at a Seattle fish market.

So, the M’s knew they needed to make some big moves at the trade deadline to improve a struggling lineup and support an excellent starting rotation and they did just that by acquiring Randy Arozarena from the Tampa Bay Rays.

It was a really rough start to the season for the outfielder. Arozarena was still hitting below the Mendoza line as recently as July 5, but a deeper dive into the numbers shows he’s turned things around. 

Randy owns a .298 batting average and .951 OPS since June 14 (35 games) and has carried that momentum over into his first few games with the Mariners, going 3-for-8 with two runs and two walks and I like him to keep that going in tonight’s matchup against Nick Pivetta and the Boston Red Sox.

Arozarena has plenty of experience vs. Pivetta thanks to his time in the AL East, and has been a tough out. Randy is 8-for-22 with two doubles and two dingers in his career against the right-hander. That’s good for a .335 expected batting average and a .769 expected slugging.

Randy has topped 1.5 total bases five times in his last nine games, and I like him to go Over once again, particularly in this matchup and at this price.

Prop bet #2: Royce Lewis Over 1.5 total bases

+130 at BetMGM

I think it’s pretty clear by this point that the Minnesota Twins are just better with Royce Lewis in the lineup. The key is keeping him on the field. But that’s where he’ll be when the Twins head to Queens to take on the New York Mets.

Multiple injuries have limited Lewis to just 27 games this season. However, that just makes the fact that he has 11 home runs and 20 RBI all the more impressive. He also enters tonight’s matchup against the Mets with a .296 batting average and 1.052 OPS and I like his odds to improve on those numbers as he digs in against Mets lefty Jose Quintana.

While the Mets are surging, it’s been a tough season for the southpaw. Quintana is pitching to a 5.22 expected ERA while surrendering a .280 opponent expected batting average. Those both rank in the Bottom 10% of the league.

Oh, did I mention that Lewis crushes left-handed pitching? This season the Twins slugger has a .429 batting average and a 1.321 OPS vs. lefties in 2024 and has a .356 average and .987 OPS for his career.

Lewis already has two extra-base hits in his first two starts back from his latest injury and we can still get +130 on the Over 1.5 total bases for him in this matchup tonight. I can’t say no to that.

Prop bet #3: Luis Robert Jr. Under 0.5 hits

+170 at DraftKings

It feels like Luis Robert Jr. can’t get away from the Chicago White Sox fast enough. Robert is basically the last remaining trade chip the White Sox have left but it looks like he has already checked out.

The Pale Hose centerfielder has looked, well, pale at the plate lately. He has just one hit and a jaw-dropping 15 strikeouts in his last 24 plate appearances. That works out to a .044 batting average and a .257 OPS.

Tonight, he’ll dig into the batter's box against the Kansas City Royals and starter Alec Marsh. Marsh has battled his consistency this season, but he's a league-average strikeout guy and there’s no denying the right-hander has gotten the better of Robert in the past. These two have faced off three times with Robert going hitless with two strikeouts. 

Robert has gone hitless in five of his last six games. He also went 1-for-11 with six strikeouts in his previous series vs. the Royals, which was just after the All-Star break. But like I said, Robert just looks unhappy with his current situation, and until the White Sox move him, I’m going to fade him in his current form.

#FreeRobert