We're wrapping up another week of baseball in primetime with the Houston Astros taking on the Arizona Diamondbacks to close out their series.
Our Diamondbacks vs. Astros predictions and MLB picks are targeting the Over with Arizona looking to avoid a sweep. We break it all down below.
Diamondbacks vs Astros prediction
My best bet
Over 8 (-115 at BetMGM)
My analysis
It hasn't been the same for Justin Verlander lately, and you have to wonder if this is it. He's failed to pitch beyond five innings in his last five starts and posted an ERA of nearly 7.00. These numbers are unheard of for this future Hall of Famer and ones that immediately point you in the direction of fading the Stros'.
The problem, however, is that I cannot trust Ryne Nelson, who starts for the Arizona Diamondbacks on the other side. He does a pretty good job avoiding free bases, but there's not much else beyond that. Particularly troubling issues are the barrel rate and hard-hit rate. That's something a lineup with so much power can capitalize on.
That's pointing me to the Over. This total is a bit too low, but it's mainly a product of Verlander, so we'll start there.
Moreover, this low total is a product of his historic dominance over Arizona. Over seven career starts, he's been sparkling. The veteran pitcher has posted a sub-2.00 ERA, including five scoreless innings the last time he faced them a season ago.
However, it's essential that when evaluating this game, you look at what has happened in your most recent memory. That's because it's clear something for Verlander has changed this year, given just how awful he's been. To us, again, it's a signal that the hourglass on his elite career could be up.
That recent history includes him allowing more than two earned runs in all of his last five starts except one, against the Red Sox. What was unique about that Red Sox team? They have 4-5 players in their lineup on any given day with a whiff rate over 30% against the fastball. That's not Arizona. The Snakes hit the fastball as well as any team in baseball, especially lately.
On the other hand, Nelson has been good lately, but I don't like this matchup for him. Since the All-Star break, the Astros have been in the Top 10 in both barrel and hard-hit rates, which have been his most significant trouble points this season.
His four straight games of allowing two earned or fewer are impressive, but it's a bit of smoke in mirrors. Just one of those games came against a team ranking anywhere near the top of baseball in hard-hit rate. That was against the Mets, who had eight hits against him and were highly unlucky to not cash in on the scoreboard.
Give me runs today. Both of these teams are set up well to score. One has a good matchup and the other faces a pitcher with his best years behind him.
Diamondbacks vs Astros same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 8
Ketel Marte Over 1.5 total bases
Yanier Diaz to hit a home run
In a game where we expect plenty of scoring, we're going for a solid longshot cash for today's SGP. Each pitcher throws a heavy dosage of the fastball and we're focusing on ways to counter that.
The first of these legs, combined with our best bet, is Ketel Marte to go Over 1.5 total bases. There's not a ton to say here; Marte is one of the best fastball hitters in baseball this season. His run value of +16 against the four-seamer is near the top of the sport, as is his batting average of nearly .390.
We're also taking a guy who has already cashed us large payouts this season in previous articles to go yard. That's Yanier Diaz. He also hits the fastball the hardest among Astros players, with a rate nearing 60%. This simple logic fading pitchers that throw fastballs over 50% of the time has served us well in the past. We'll give it another go here.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Diamondbacks vs Astros odds
Diamondbacks vs Astros live odds
Diamondbacks vs Astros opening odds
- Moneyline: Arizona +120 | Houston -142
- Run line: Arizona +1.5 (-178) | Houston -1.5 (+146)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Diamondbacks vs Astros moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The Astros have dominated this series recently, with an 8-2 record in the last 10 matchups. That includes back-to-back wins in this recent fixture.
- It's been pretty rough as a bettor if you've backed Arizona lately. It's gone 3-7 over the last 10 games and lost bettors over four units.
- Things have been better for the Astros, who have a 7-3 record over their last 10 games, which has won bettors nearly two units.
- With that in mind, Houston has won just one of the last five starts made by ace Justin Verlander.
Diamondbacks vs Astros trend
The Astros have cashed the run line in 50 of their last 86 games (+18.05 units / 17% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Astros.
Diamondbacks vs Astros game info
| Location: | Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Sunday, 9-8-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher: | Ryne Nelson (10-6, 4.15 ERA) |
| Astros starting pitcher: | Justin Verlander (3-5, 4.52 ERA) |
Diamondbacks vs Astros latest injuries
Diamondbacks vs Astros weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
