Diamondbacks vs Astros Sunday Night Baseball Prop Bets: Nelson Goes Deep Again

Prop bet #1: Yordan Alvarez Over 1.5 total bases

-105 at SportsInteraction

Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve have been instrumental in the Houston Astros grabbing the first two games of this series. The two stars combined to go 5-for-8 at the dish with four runs and seven RBI in the opener. They didn’t cool off on Saturday, going 6-for-10 with three runs and two RBI in another victory. 

Alvarez has been red-hot, racking up multiple total bases in six of his last 10 games while averaging 3.9 total bases over that span. The MLB odds have set his total bases prop at 1.5 with -105 odds to the Over — and I’m buying. 

He faces off against Ryne Nelson, a right-hander who pitches to contact with a fourth-percentile whiff rate (18%). That should mean that the slugger will make contact a few times on Sunday, and when he makes contact, that usually yields favorable results. 

The 27-year-old is an analytics darling, ranking in the 99th percentile in xwOBA (.419) and xSLG (.616) and the 98th percentile in xBA (.309). Conversely, Nelson checks in at the 14th percentile in xBA (.269) and could get peppered. 

Give me the Over on Alvarez in a plus matchup against a pitcher who generally doesn’t miss bats and tends to allow hits.

Prop bet #2: Justin Verlander Over 2.5 earned runs

-118 at Caesars

Justin Verlander is a legend in the sport. The 41-year-old has seen better days, however, posting a 4.52 ERA, 4.73 FIP, and 5.03 xFIP across 13 starts. 

He’s become an extreme fly-ball pitcher, generating a groundball just 27% of the time. Those fly balls have turned into home runs too often — he’s allowing 1.51 dingers per nine innings, the highest rate of his career. 

The Arizona Diamondbacks haven’t made much noise yet in this series but this is still a dangerous lineup. They rank sixth in wRC+ (111) and third in wOBA (.331) against right-handed pitching. They have the requisite power to make Verlander pay, ranking fifth in ISO (.180). 

The veteran isn’t making batters miss (24th percentile chase rate, 27th percentile whiff rate) and has been allowing too many home runs, which could be a problem against a lineup that's proven it can rake against righties. 

Verlander hasn’t been at the top of his game, surrendering 4+ earned runs in four of his last five starts. He’s allowing 3.2 earned runs per game across his last 10 outings and has been particularly poor at Minute Maid Park this year with a 5.90 FIP and 5.56 xFIP.

Prop bet #3: Ryne Nelson Over 18.5 outs

+150 at DraftKings

Ryne Nelson has been a money-making machine lately by going Over his outs recorded prop in nine of his last 10 games. Why not ride the hot hand and bet on Nelson to do so yet again, especially when getting +150 odds? 

Nelson avoids issuing free passes with an 88th percentile walk rate (5.4%). He also doesn’t make many batters miss with a 29th-percentile strikeout rate (20.2%). This means he pitches to contact and lets his fielders record most of the outs for him. 

When that plan works, he’s able to pitch deeper into ball games because he isn’t wasting a ton of pitches. When it doesn’t work, he gets hit so hard he gets chased early from the game. 

Nelson was a fade pitcher last year with a 5.31 FIP, 5.27 xERA, and 5.07 FIP. It looked like he was trending in that direction again this year after posting a 6.93 ERA in May and a 5.20 ERA in June. 

Well, the 26-year-old has since flipped the script, posting a 2.41 ERA in July and a 3.19 ERA in August. His newfound effectiveness has allowed him to pitch deeper into games, hence the strong run toward the Over on his outs recorded prop lately. 

It doesn’t hurt that there will be a pitcher-friendly umpire in Lance Barrett behind the plate. I’ll bet on Nelson continuing to be a cash cow on this prop.