Afternoon baseball is music to my ears, and so are winds forecasted to be blowing straight out to center field at Camden Yards and Citizens Bank Park on Thursday, April 3.
My top MLB player props and home run picks feature Boston Red Sox first baseman Triston Casas and a pair of Philadelphia Phillies.
Best MLB home run props today
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Casas (+750 at BetMGM) -
Harper (+444 at FanDuel) - Bohm (+800 at FanDuel)
HR picks for April 3
Triston Casas (+750 at BetMGM)
The wind is forecasted to be blowing straight out at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, and Baltimore Orioles starter Charlie Morton wasn’t sharp in his 2025 debut with an 85.7% hard-hit rate while surrendering seven hits across just 3 1/3 innings.
This should be a solid matchup for the Boston Red Sox lineup, and Triston Casas is looking for his first homer of the season. He touched them all 30 times against right-handed pitchers the past two years with a rock-solid .225 ISO, so this is a favorable spot for the 25-year-old first baseman to go yard.
Bryce Harper (+444 at FanDuel)
The Colorado Rockies are sending Antonio Senzatela to the hill, and Philadelphia Phillies slugger Bryce Harper has taken him deep twice in just 14 plate appearances. Harper is also amid a mini slump, without an extra-base hit and a poor 18.8% hard-hit rate across his past four games.
Of course, Harper did homer in the season opener, and his 21 homers and .251 ISO against right-handed pitchers last year were both high-end marks.
Senzatela was also teed up in his season opener with an 84.2% hard-hit rate and somehow managed to work around nine hits and two walks without allowing a run to the Tampa Bay Rays. He won’t be as fortunate against the Phillies this afternoon.
The kicker is that the wind is forecasted to blow straight out at Citizens Bank Park this afternoon.
Alec Bohm (+800 at FanDuel)
Sticking with the Rockies-Phillies game, Philly third baseman Alec Bohm has long odds to go yard against Senzatela.
There isn’t the traditional platoon split in this matchup, but Bohm’s wOBA, ISO, and slugging percentage have improved each of the past two seasons, and he’s started 2025 with a solid 15.8 barrel percentage and .601 expected slugging percentage — turning it into just one double through 23 plate appearances.
Additionally, if Senzatela exits early, Bohm could be in line to face a lefty reliever. Bohm posted a solid .236 ISO against southpaws the past two years. Senzatela doesn’t play favorites and has surrendered a healthy .347 wOBA and .456 slugging percentage to left-handed hitters and similar .340 and .459 marks to righties.
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