It's a small slate with lots of weather factoring into today's games. Let's not waste much time because lines are moving quickly.
These are my favorite MLB picks from the pitching props market for Thursday, April 3.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for April 3
Morton Under 16.5 outs (-130 at DraftKings)
Houck Under 16.5 outs (+105 at Pinnacle)
Carrasco Over 4.5 hits allowed (-125 at Caesars)
Today's SP best bets
Red Sox vs. Orioles
The angle: It's warm and the forecast is calling for rain
The move: Charlie Morton Under 16.5 outs (-130 at DraftKings)
The move: Tanner Houck Under 16.5 outs (+105 at Pinnacle)
A warm front's moving into the East, but also a ton of rain is coming with it. It looks like there could be some potential delays in Baltimore and that has me reaching for some pitcher Under outs with a pair of ugly starters.
Charlie Morton is 42 years old and has a tough matchup vs. a Boston Red Sox lineup that might have turned a corner after a day off. Morton was anything but sharp in his Baltimore Orioles debut, logging just 10 outs on 80 pitches vs. the Toronto Blue Jays.
Now, he has to deal with 15-mph winds blowing out in a ballpark that has shortened its fences and could be at risk of sitting with a rain delay. I'd doubt the Orioles would push Morton if there was a 90-minute delay.
His Under outs is 16.5 at -130 at bet365 and DraftKings, but I'd wait to get the 15.5 at a better price. There is not a big difference in 16.5 and 15.5 outs and waiting for maybe 30 or 25 points is the best move. I'll put Under 16.5 at -130 for the record, but be smart.
Tanner Houck was great last year but has stumbled coming out of the gates in 2025. Through 19+ innings of baseball this year, including spring training, the Boston starter has allowed 21 earned runs.
Texas hit him around in his opener, where he went 17 outs on 89 pitches and had more walks than strikeouts. Now, he has to battle a great Baltimore lineup with wind, decent hitting temperatures, rain, and a possible delay. His control, coupled with the rain, could drive that pitch count up. Buy this u16.5 to -120.
Both pitchers could get hit around or the rain could save us. There are a lot of outs for this early game.
Diamondbacks vs. Yankees
The angle: Carlos Carrasco came out of the bullpen in his Yankee debut but will get deeper today
The move: Carlos Carrasco Over 4.5 hits allowed (-125 at Caesars)
Carlos Carrasco threw just 40 pitches over two innings out of the bullpen in his first appearance on Saturday, but he will be asked to pitch a full workload today as the New York Yankees look to avoid being swept at home by the Arizona Diamondbacks.
In those 40 pitches, he allowed five hits and three earned runs vs. the Brewers. He now has a tougher lineup to navigate and the stress of a Yankee home debut in the Bronx.
This is a pitcher who has carried a 6.18 ERA since 2023 and has given up 393 hits over his last 347 innings. He needs to eat some frames today with all the injuries to the New York rotation and might have to face the music if Arizona hits him around.
THE BAT is projecting 80 pitches and 5.02 hits allowed. With 13-mph winds blowing out and warmer temperatures, the Arizona bats could feast today. It also looks like the rain isn't going to be an issue in the Bronx.
Not intended for use in MA.
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