The New York Yankees and Arizona Diamondbacks will battle it out on Thursday night as one team looks to avoid a sweep.
That team? The Yankees. A group that hasn't heard the sweet sounds of Frank Sinatra's "New York, New York" for two straight games. The Diamondbacks have silenced that, suddenly becoming one of baseball's hottest teams. Now they're looking for a fourth consecutive win after a 4-3 victory in the Bronx last night.
My Yankees vs. Diamondbacks predictions break it down here as I bring you my MLB picks when the two teams meet on Thursday, April 3.
Diamondbacks vs Yankees prediction
My Diamondbacks vs Yankees best bet: Over 10 (-115 at Caesars)
New York Yankees pitcher Carlos Carrasco was a curious addition in the offseason, and he did little to cast doubt on that with his first appearance of the year.
The Brewers hit him hard in his two innings as a relief pitcher, where they scored three earned runs on five hits. Now he’ll make his first start of the year in what is likely a placeholder appearance until righty Clarke Schmidt is a full go in a few weeks.
Can he rebound? Well, there’s not a ton to suggest so, but that doesn’t mean I dismiss New York's chances to win the game. I also understand and respect the line movement that has now made the Bronx Bombers a favorite. That’s because the matchup for New York against Merrill Kelly is good. Considering my projections made this total 11.4, I'm happy jump on this Over.
I could talk about Carrasco by saying I expect every team to have success against him this season, and I don’t see many worlds where he’s a Yankee for the entire year.
The age of 38 is a slight concern, but it’s far from the end. What’s most concerning are numbers that have rapidly declined in the past two seasons. In 2023, his wOBA was in the Bottom 2% of the league at .390. In 2024, it improved slightly, but it wasn’t much to inspire confidence. That year, it dropped to .360, in the Bottom 5% of the sport. Arizona, top-to-bottom, is a Top-10 offense, and it’ll be able to sneak across a few runs against Carrasco. The Yankees should also be able to do their part, too.
A low strikeout rate and high barrel rate have traditionally been the type of pitchers the Yankees have had so much success against. That’s because, for what amounts to essentially the Aaron Judge era, New York has been in the Top 5 in barrel rate and the Bottom 5 in strikeout rate. This season isn’t any different.
When you struggle to create whiffs against a group that gets them at such a high clip, it’s almost inevitable that power will show up. I expect that to happen today. Expect the Yankees to get after Kelly early as the Diamondbacks do to Carrasco. That should leave little work left to do in the bottom innings against two average bullpens.
Diamondbacks vs Yankees same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 9.5
Aaron Judge to hit a home run
Ketel Marte to hit a home run
Do I have to justify a bet on Aaron Judge to go deep? I’m not sure I do.
He’s started the season like he ended last regular season, blasting everything in front of him. The matchup with Kelly is nice, but they all are these days. The heavy fastball approach Judge will see is special here, though. It should benefit him; there’s a reason he has a 1.50 OPS in four appearances against the righty.
We paired him with Ketel Marte to go yard. He will see a ton of offspeed stuff from Carrasco, who led the Snakes in hard-hit rate last season against the sinker and slider. There will be plenty of opportunities for him tonight.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Diamondbacks vs Yankees odds
Diamondbacks vs Yankees live odds
Diamondbacks vs Yankees opening odds
- Moneyline: Arizona -110 | New York -110
- Run line: Arizona -1.5 (+145) | New York +1.5 (-175)
- Over/Under: Over 9.5 | Under 9.5
Diamondbacks vs Yankees trend
The Yankees cashed the Over in 72 of their last 127 games (+16.45 units / 12% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Diamondbacks vs. Yankees.
How to watch Diamondbacks vs Yankees and game info
| Location | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date | Thursday, 4-3-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | ARID, YES |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher | Merrill Kelly (1-0, 1.69 ERA) |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Carlos Carrasco (0-0, 13.50 ERA) |
Diamondbacks vs Yankees latest injuries
Diamondbacks vs Yankees weather
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
