There is nothing like watching rookies come into their own on a major league field. It also creates betting opportunities for us in the MLB player props market.
Today I highlight Angels rookie Nolan Schanuel, who has been tearing the cover off the ball since coming out of the All-Star break. That and more in my MLB picks for Thursday, August 1.
MLB props for August 1
- Burger Over 0.5 RBI (+160 at bet365)
- Imanaga Over 5.5 Ks (+120 at bet365)
- Schanuel Over 1.5 H+R+RBI (-115 at DraftKings)
Today’s best MLB props
Prop bet #1: Jake Burger Over 0.5 RBI
Jake Burger might be a little sad to see July come to a close. The Miami Marlins slugger was red hot last month and hopes he can continue his strong play in August as the Fish open a four-game set with the Atlanta Braves.
Burger mashed all month to the tune of a .287 average with a .963 OPS, eight home runs, and 15 runs batted in, and my MLB picks like him to drive in another one tonight against Braves starter Charlie Morton.
Even though the Braves’ veteran right-hander can still eat some innings, he appears to be on the downswing of his career. Morton is pitching to a 4.32 expected ERA and a .241 opponent expected batting average. Those rank in the 35th and 53rd percentile, respectively, among MLB pitchers.
And while Burger had a month to remember, Morton would love to forget his July. He made four starts, pitching to a 5.31 ERA while surrendering a .910 OPS to opposing hitters.
Now, you might see that Burger is 0-for-5 in his career vs. Morton, but a .655 expected slugging percentage tells me he has hammered the ball in this matchup and has been a little unlucky at this point.
On top of that, Burger has been hitting behind an arguably even hotter teammate in Xavier Edwards, who hit .395 in July, meaning Burger has been given more opportunities than normal to dive in runs lately.
Plus, at this price, our Covers Prop Projections make a Burger RBI a five-star play. Now, that’s tasty.
Prop bet #2: Shota Imanaga Over 5.5 strikeouts
It appears that Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Shota Imanaga has snapped out of his little mid-season funk just in time for a big series with the rival St. Louis Cardinals.
The Japanese southpaw had a solid month of July and will try to carry that momentum over into August. Imanaga made four starts last month, pitching to a 2.55 ERA while limiting opponents to a .217 batting average and striking out an impressive 27.8% of batters he’s faced. I like him to keep racking up the Ks in this one.
This current run has dropped his season-long expected ERA to 3.47, which ranks in the 71st percentile. His K-rate has bumped up to 24.9%, which is well above league average.
While the Cardinals don’t strike out vs. southpaws a ton, they have been really bad against left-handed pitchers in general this season, ranking 29th in batting average and OPS, and 28th in wRC+.
That means Imanaga will have a great chance to work deep into this game and pile up those punchouts. Kind of like he did when he last faced the Cards back on June 15 when he held them to one run on four hits while striking out six over seven innings of work.
Imanaga’s strikeout prop for this matchup is set at 5.5 with the Over at solid plus money. He’s gone over that mark in three of his last four starts and 12 of 19 this season. With this matchup, I like him to improve on that number.
Prop bet #3: Nolan Schanuel Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
The Los Angeles Angels might have found something in rookie Nolan Schanuel. The 22-year-old first baseman has been tearing the cover off the ball since coming out of the All-Star break, and I like him to keep swinging a hot stick against the visiting Colorado Rockies tonight.
Schanuel made the team out of camp this spring and his first full big-league season got off to a rough start, but when the weather started heating up, so did he. The lefty slugger has been hitting a solid .286 with a .838 OPS since the start of June and he’s taken it to the next level recently. In 12 games since the break, Schanuel is hitting .389 with a 1.188 OPS, four extra-base hits, and 10 runs scored.
Tonight, he gets a solid matchup against Ryan Feltner. The Rockies’ right-hander has been pretty "meh" this season, which makes him good by Rockies standards. Feltner owns a 4.23 expected ERA while surrendering a .253 expected batting average to opponents. Those rank in the 39th and 31st percentile, respectively.
Not surprisingly, left-handed batters have done most of the damage, getting to Feltner for a .286 average and a .822 OPS this season.
We are getting a solid value on Schanuel’s hits + runs + RBI prop with the Over 1.5 priced at -115. He's gone Over this number eight times in this post-All-Star game stretch. He’s a good bet to do it again tonight.
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Today’s MLB games
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